TR

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FOREXCOM:SPXUSD by TradingView

US markets

Cross-check — US

AmberALIGNED YELLOW — caution (3/4 gauges) (4 gauges: Liquidity / Momentum / Trader consensus / Sentiment; strong when ≥3/4 same direction or all 4; thresholds err cautious) · Exit-door headline: Green

Liquidity
Amber
stress pts 2 (3/3 inputs)
SOFR−IORB -2bp (0)
SRF/repo 0.0bn (1)
HY OAS 327bp, +67 vs 60d low (1)
Momentum
Amber
10/12 bullish checks
GSPC >20/50/200d ✓✓✓ · 3m +4.7% · 6m +8.7%
NDX >20/50/200d ✗✗✓ · 3m +4.8% · 6m +10.7%
%>50d 56% · NH−NL +23
Trader consensus
Red
US weighted avg -0.48 on −2..+2 (11 traders; core↑)
bearish share 64% of stated stances
stale(50%) 2
core-four ≥3/4 bearish
XC weights: Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5
Sentiment
Amber
neither extreme (0/3 hot)
18 (extreme fear) · cool <35
-8.9pp
5d avg 0.58
euphoria check off (0/3 components)

US Liquidity: SOFR−IORB / SRF / HY OAS stress pts; 0–1 green, 2–3 yellow, 4+ red; missing ≠ stress. US Momentum: SPX+NDX ≥90% bullish checks for green; NDX short-MA fail or SPX/NDX diverge caps green→yellow. US Trader consensus (XC weights Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5): ≥+0.5 green, −1.080%→red. Exit-door score is separate.

0/10
Green
: off (fast 0≥3) : off (fast≥3 & slow 0≥2)

Normal — full exposure per system. Price inputs as of 2026-10-21

#WarningTypePtsDetail
W1slow0/1SOFR−IORB last3 -3, -2, -2bp; repo 0.0bn
W1bSOFR > IORB ≥3 consecutive days (user rule)slow0/1current run above 0: 0 day(s)
W2Credit spreads wideningslow0/2HY 327bp vs 60d low 260bp, 20d high 333bp
W3fast0/1SPX -0.8% vs 52wH; %>50d 56%; A/D line > 50d
W4New lows risingfast0/1NH/NL last3: 11/3, 25/1, 26/3
W5Leaders breakingfast0/1top-20 below 50d 10%; strong-idx 18.4% vs 20d high 18.4%
W6Fed hawkish (partial)slow0/12y 4.79% Δ1m +3bp · FedWatch-style odds shown separately (info only, not scored)
W7aSPX < 50dfast0/1SPX 7,757 vs 50d 7,705
W7bSPX < 200d & 200d fallingslow0/1200d 7,284, 1m slope +1.22%
W8fast0/1VIX 16.7 / VIX3M 18.7

2026-05-01 · 0/102026-05-04 · 0/102026-05-05 · 0/102026-05-06 · 0/102026-05-07 · 0/102026-05-08 · 0/102026-05-11 · 0/102026-05-12 · 0/102026-05-13 · 1/102026-05-14 · 1/102026-05-15 · 1/102026-05-18 · 0/102026-05-19 · 3/102026-05-20 · 0/102026-05-21 · 0/102026-05-22 · 0/102026-05-26 · 0/102026-05-27 · 0/102026-05-28 · 0/102026-05-29 · 0/102026-06-01 · 0/102026-06-02 · 0/102026-06-03 · 1/102026-06-04 · 0/102026-06-05 · 0/102026-06-08 · 1/102026-06-09 · 0/102026-06-10 · 0/102026-06-11 · 0/102026-06-12 · 0/102026-06-15 · 0/102026-06-16 · 0/102026-06-17 · 0/102026-06-18 · 0/102026-06-22 · 0/102026-06-23 · 0/102026-06-24 · 0/102026-06-25 · 0/102026-06-26 · 3/102026-06-29 · 0/102026-06-30 · 0/102026-07-01 · 0/102026-07-02 · 0/102026-07-06 · 0/102026-07-07 · 0/102026-07-08 · 0/102026-07-09 · 0/102026-07-10 · 0/102026-07-13 · 0/102026-07-14 · 0/102026-07-15 · 0/102026-07-16 · 0/102026-07-17 · 1/102026-07-20 · 1/102026-07-21 · 0/102026-07-22 · 0/102026-07-23 · 1/102026-07-24 · 1/102026-07-27 · 3/102026-07-28 · 3/102026-07-29 · 3/102026-07-30 · 1/102026-07-31 · 0/102026-08-03 · 0/102026-08-04 · 0/102026-08-05 · 0/102026-08-06 · 0/102026-08-07 · 0/102026-08-10 · 0/102026-08-11 · 0/102026-08-12 · 0/102026-08-13 · 0/102026-08-14 · 0/102026-08-17 · 0/102026-08-18 · 0/102026-08-19 · 0/102026-08-20 · 0/102026-08-21 · 0/102026-08-24 · 0/102026-08-25 · 0/102026-08-26 · 0/102026-08-27 · 0/102026-08-28 · 0/102026-08-31 · 1/102026-09-01 · 1/102026-09-02 · 1/102026-09-03 · 1/102026-09-04 · 1/102026-09-08 · 1/102026-09-09 · 1/102026-09-10 · 3/102026-09-11 · 1/102026-09-14 · 2/102026-09-15 · 5/102026-09-16 · 2/102026-09-17 · 1/102026-09-18 · 2/102026-09-21 · 2/102026-09-22 · 1/102026-09-23 · 2/102026-09-24 · 4/102026-09-25 · 5/102026-09-28 · 5/102026-09-29 · 5/102026-09-30 · 5/102026-10-01 · 4/102026-10-02 · 1/102026-10-05 · 2/102026-10-06 · 1/102026-10-07 · 1/102026-10-08 · 1/102026-10-09 · 1/102026-10-12 · 1/102026-10-13 · 1/102026-10-14 · 3/102026-10-15 · 1/102026-10-16 · 4/102026-10-19 · 2/102026-10-20 · 2/102026-10-21 · 0/10
2026-05-01 → 2026-10-21 · dashed: yellow ≥3, red ≥6 · shaded = reconstructed backfill

First warning: none — currently GREEN · last non-green day 2026-10-16

Backfill reconstructed from cached daily series; W5 (leaders) not reconstructable — omitted from backfill.

Draft weights from spec §10, not yet validated. W6 = 2y Δ1m only; fed-funds-futures odds are shown as info and not scored.

Liquidity & rates

-2 bp
as of 2026-10-21
SOFR 3.88% / IORB 3.90%; >0 = funding tight
0.351 $bn
as of 2026-10-22
FRED RRPONTSYD
0.001 $bn
as of 2026-10-22
FRED RPONTSYD; sustained >0 = stress
$974bn
as of 2026-10-20
Treasury FiscalData DTS; 20d Δ -31bn
5.15%
as of 2026-10-21
Yahoo ^TNX close
5.12%
as of 2026-10-20
official, 1–2d lag
2.77%
as of 2026-10-20
20d Δ +15bp · FRED DFII10 · cross-check TIP ETF 20d +0.7% (DISAGREES: TIP falls when real yields rise)
2.35%
as of 2026-10-20
derived: 5.12% − 2.77% · 20d Δ +1bp
101.78
as of 2026-10-21
20d +0.7% · Yahoo DX-Y.NYB
327 bp
as of 2026-10-21
60d low 260bp
HY credit PROXY (HYG/IEF)
0.8532 widening
as of 2026-10-21
PROXY for HY spread (ratio falls when credit spreads widen). 20d -1.38% · -1.66% vs 60d high · widening flag at ≤−1.5% · info only, not scored in W2
HY credit PROXY (HYG/LQD)
0.7459
as of 2026-10-21
PROXY for HY spread (ratio falls when credit spreads widen). 20d -0.77% · -1.42% vs 60d high · widening flag at ≤−1.5% · info only, not scored in W2
$5,782bn
as of 2026-10-14
derived; WALCL weekly (as-of = WALCL date)

Today: -2 bp · 5-day avg -2.0 bp · days >0 in 12m: 90 as of 2026-10-21

OctNovDecQEJanFebMarQEAprMayJunQEJulAugSepQE-16+0+33

FRED SOFR − IORB, daily. Red shading + red dots = spread > 0 (SOFR above IORB, funding tight). Dashed grey = month-ends; orange = quarter-ends (QE).

18
EXTREME FEAR
CNN Fear & Greed
prev close 31 · 1w 30 · 1m 35
as of 2026-10-23 03:21 HKT

AAII bull − bear spread
-8.9 pp
as of 2026-10-22
bull 36.9% · neutral 17.3% · bear 45.8% · percentile since 1987: 21 · weekly survey (Thu) · aaii.com sentiment.xls
0.52
as of 2026-10-21
5d avg 0.58 · total P/C 0.87 · CBOE daily market statistics · CNN put/call component: 19 (extreme fear) — independent read

Euphoria = at least 2 of 3 available: CNN F&G 18 (euphoric if ≥75); AAII bull−bear -8.9pp (euphoric if ≥+20pp); equity P/C 5d avg 0.58 (euphoric if ≤0.50). Now: 0/3 → not euphoric. Feeds the CROWDED flag (not the exit-door score).

0.891
not inverted
VIX 16.68 / VIX3M 18.72 · 20d max 0.975
as of 2026-10-21

Fast indicator, info only (W8 already counts VIX > VIX3M; weights unchanged). Yahoo ^VIX/^VIX3M · cross-check CBOE official 10-21: VIX 16.68 / VIX3M 18.72 = 0.891 vs Yahoo 0.891 (match).

Fed funds futures — FedWatch-style odds (derived estimate)

FOMCPrePostΔ bpImplied odds of 25bp moveCum. vs EFFR bpMethod
2026-10-283.880%3.900%+2.0hike ≈8%+2next-month contract ZQX26.CBT
2026-12-093.900%4.090%+19.0hike ≈76%+21meeting-month contract ZQZ26.CBT
2027-01-274.090%4.170%+8.0hike ≈32%+29next-month contract ZQG27.CBT

DERIVED ESTIMATE, not CME FedWatch (CME blocks scripts). Start = EFFR 3.88% (NY Fed, 2026-10-21). Implied rate = 100 − ZQ settle (Yahoo, CBOT 30-day fed funds). CME-style month-average method; odds = |Δ| ÷ 25bp. Contracts: ZQV26.CBT 96.118 → 3.882% (10-22) · ZQX26.CBT 96.100 → 3.900% (10-22) · ZQZ26.CBT 95.965 → 4.035% (10-22) · ZQF27.CBT 95.900 → 4.100% (10-22) · ZQG27.CBT 95.830 → 4.170% (10-22) · ZQH27.CBT 95.775 → 4.225% (10-22)

as of 2026-10-21 universe 503 current constituents (Wikipedia) — survivorship caveat
74%
56%
56%
Adv / Dec
281 / 221
52w New Highs
26
52w New Lows
3
% above 50d (120d)
Cumulative A/D line (250d)

Breadth divergence: not flagged SPX -0.8% vs 52w high (near = within 2%: yes) · % > 50d 56% vs 20-session peak 56% (drop 0 pts; flag at >10-pt drop). Info only.

New highs, cap ≥ $2B (26), sorted by RS: MRNA, VEEV, CRL, ZBRA, CNC, HAS, APA, FDS, A, ADP, MTD, WAT, CAH, COP, V, TMO, WST, ELV, CVX, MA, MET, TRV, CTAS, HLT, CDW, BRK-B

NH/NL = intraday high/low at 252d extreme. Cap from Nasdaq screener; 0 new-high names lacked cap data and are excluded from named list.

as of 2026-10-21
18.4%
of S&P 500 is "strong" (RS pct ≥80 & > 50d). RS = 0.4·RS1m + 0.3·RS3m + 0.3·RS6m, RSn = stock ret / SPX ret − 1. 20d high 18.4%

Top 20

#TickerSectorCap
1MRNA
Moderna
Health Care$98B99+35%+312%+307%-3.4%✓
2VEEV
Veeva Systems
Health Care$52B99+23%+70%+80%-0.8%✓
3MPC
Marathon Petroleum
Energy$131B99+20%+44%+95%-5.3%✓
4P
Everpure
Information Technology$44B98+18%+66%+74%-16.9%✓
5ILMN
Illumina, Inc.
Health Care$43B98+14%+37%+99%-8.6%✓
6CRL
Charles River Laboratories
Health Care$16B98+21%+44%+72%-1.2%✓
7PTC
PTC Inc.
Information Technology$21B98+39%+64%+27%-6.0%✓
8VLO
Valero Energy
Energy$126B98+16%+37%+73%-5.4%✓
9ACN
Accenture
Information Technology$161B97+32%+67%+19%-15.1%✓
10NTAP
NetApp
Information Technology$43B97+13%+26%+81%-9.8%✓
11PSX
Phillips 66
Energy$116B97+13%+35%+68%-3.1%✓
12IT
Gartner
Information Technology$14B97+23%+57%+29%-15.9%✓
13ZBRA
Zebra Technologies
Information Technology$18B97+8%+45%+56%-0.5%✓
14NOW
ServiceNow
Information Technology$158B96+12%+59%+37%-20.6%✓
15DDOG
Datadog
Information Technology$98B96+10%+7%+90%-9.2%✓
16WDAY
Workday, Inc.
Information Technology$49B96+8%+52%+48%-18.0%✓
17CRWD
CrowdStrike
Information Technology$245B96-4%+25%+89%-16.6%✓
18HUM
Humana
Health Care$51B96+14%+3%+80%-6.8%✓
19DELL
Dell Technologies
Information Technology$309B95-11%+6%+109%-18.3%✗
20HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise
Information Technology$77B95-5%+17%+89%-20.9%✗

Sectors

SectorNAvg Δ1wΔ1w pp
Health Care60.071+0.943%+078%
Energy21.067+0.338%+581%
Information Technology75.058-10.632%-356%
Consumer Staples33.058+1.815%+373%
Financials76.050+7.711%+545%
Materials24.046+2.68%+067%
Consumer Discretionary47.043+4.321%+1349%
Industrials81.040-2.59%+049%
Utilities31.036-2.00%+068%
Communication Services22.036+2.35%+036%
Real Estate30.033+1.13%+320%

Calendar

Date (US)InEventSource
2026-10-285dFOMC decision
October 27-28 (federalreserve.gov); statement 14:00 ET
2026-11-1119dCPI
Core CPI (Nasdaq econ calendar)
2026-12-0947dFOMC decision
December 8-9* (federalreserve.gov); statement 14:00 ET
—dNFP
MISSING — not found in Nasdaq econ calendar next 45d (BLS site blocks bots)

Key earnings, next 2 weeks (≥$200B cap, mega-caps, or RS top-20)

Date (US)SymNameWhenCapEPS est
2026-10-23AXPAmerican Express CompanyBMO$219B$4.47
2026-10-27HSBCHSBC Holdings plcn/a$318B$2.13
2026-10-27KOCoca-Cola Company (The)BMO$399B$0.87
2026-10-27NVSNovartis AGBMO$294B$2.25
2026-10-27VVisa Inc.AMC$729B$3.43
2026-10-28GEVGE Vernova Inc.BMO$247B$4.03
2026-10-28GOOGAlphabet Inc.AMC$4094B$2.94
2026-10-28GOOGLAlphabet Inc.AMC$4094B$2.94
2026-10-28KLACKLA Corporation AMC$213B$1.18
2026-10-28MSFTMicrosoft CorporationAMC$3957B$4.71
2026-10-28NOWServiceNow, Inc.AMC$158B$0.56
2026-10-28PSXPhillips 66BMO$116B$12.02
2026-10-29AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.AMC$2830B$2.01
2026-10-29CATCaterpillar, Inc.BMO$340B$7.12
2026-10-29ILMNIllumina, Inc.AMC$43B$1.38
2026-10-29INTCIntel CorporationAMC$491B$0.28
2026-10-29LINLinde plcBMO$231B$4.52
2026-10-29LLYEli Lilly and CompanyBMO$1196B$5.38
2026-10-29MAMastercard IncorporatedBMO$545B$5.14
2026-10-29MRKMerck & Company, Inc.BMO$370B$2.12
2026-10-29SHELShell PLCBMO$289B$3.25
2026-10-29SNDKSandisk CorporationAMC$200B$45.22
2026-10-30ABBVAbbVie Inc.BMO$503B$3.76
2026-10-30AZNAstraZeneca PLCBMO$262B$2.16
2026-10-30CVXChevron CorporationBMO$448B$4.78
2026-10-30XOMExxonMobil Holdings CorporatioBMO$732B$3.96
2026-11-02AAPLApple Inc.AMC$5020B$2
2026-11-02PLTRPalantir Technologies Inc.AMC$485B$0.34
2026-11-03AMDAdvanced Micro Devices, Inc.AMC$902B$1.68
2026-11-03AMGNAmgen Inc.AMC$237B$5.72
2026-11-03ANETArista Networks, Inc.AMC$232B$0.99
2026-11-03ITGartner, Inc.BMO$14B$2.86
2026-11-03MPCMarathon Petroleum CorporationBMO$131B$25.63
2026-11-03SHOPShopify Inc.BMO$226B$0.33
2026-11-03ZBRAZebra Technologies CorporationBMO$18B$4.21
2026-11-04ARMArm Holdings plcAMC$241B$0.22
2026-11-04CRLCharles River Laboratories IntBMO$16B$2.98
2026-11-04DDOGDatadog, Inc.BMO$98B$0.18
2026-11-04PTCPTC Inc.AMC$21B$1.59
2026-11-04TMToyota Motor Corp Ltd Ordn/a$254B
2026-11-06BRK.ABerkshire Hathaway Inc.n/a$1165B
2026-11-06BRK.BBerkshire Hathaway Inc.n/a$1165B$5.91
2026-11-06HUMHumana Inc.BMO$51B($1.03)
2026-11-06MRNAModerna, Inc.BMO$98B($1.10)

Source: Nasdaq earnings calendar (unofficial API), pulled 2026-10-23 03:23 HKT. BMO/AMC are US Eastern sessions; AMC lands ~04:00–05:00 HKT next day. Rows within 48h highlighted.

Gold / Bitcoin / Oil

Gold / Bitcoin strength

Gold (GC=F futures)
4,042.2 WEAK
as of 2026-10-22 19:14 HKT
live · Yahoo GC=F
1w +1.0% · 1m -5.3% · 3m -0.0%
vs 50d 4,358.3: -7.3% · vs 200d 4,537.4: -10.9% · 200d falling · score 0/5
BTC
81,232.0 NEUTRAL
as of 2026-10-22 19:16 HKT
live · NetDania BTCUSD
1w +3.0% · 1m -3.0% · 3m +27.1%
vs 50d 81,702.1: -0.6% · vs 200d 72,733.9: +11.7% · 200d rising · score 3/5

Gold vs BTC, 1 month: -2.4% (BTC stronger)

Strength only — not a trade signal. Score = 1 point each for: price > 50d avg, price > 200d avg, 200d avg rising (vs 20 bars ago), 1m change > 0, 3m change > 0. 4–5 = STRONG, 2–3 = NEUTRAL, 0–1 = WEAK. Changes are calendar 7/30/91 days; averages are 50/200 daily bars (BTC trades 7 days a week). Live price/as-of: freshest+reliable of Yahoo (GC=F / BTC) and NetDania (XAUUSD cash / BTC) — instrument-matched Yahoo preferred when timestamps are close. Strength history + sparkline: Yahoo daily bars.

Oil strength

WTI oil (CL=F futures)
99.47 STRONG
as of 2026-10-22 19:14 HKT
live · Yahoo CL=F
1w +2.2% · 1m +1.4% · 3m +11.9%
vs 50d 92.16: +7.9% · vs 200d 84.84: +17.2% · 200d rising · score 5/5
Brent oil (UKOIL cash)
113.39 STRONG
as of 2026-10-22 19:24 HKT
live · NetDania UKOIL
1w +2.6% · 1m +8.5% · 3m +15.7%
vs 50d 99.75: +13.7% · vs 200d 90.63: +25.1% · 200d rising · score 5/5

WTI vs Brent, 1 month: -6.5% (Brent stronger)

WTI−Brent spread: -13.92 (live levels)

WTI vs Gold, 1 month: +7.1% (oil stronger)

WTI vs BTC, 1 month: +4.6% (oil stronger)

DXY 1m +1.3% · WTI 1m +1.4% (USD↑ often weighs on oil; info only)

Strength only — same 5-point rules as gold/BTC (not a trade signal). WTI = Yahoo CL=F futures; Brent = Yahoo BZ=F (live may prefer NetDania UKOIL cash when fresher). First-cut relatives: WTI−Brent spread + 1m WTI vs Brent / Gold / BTC, plus DXY 1m context. Not yet wired: EIA inventory, crack spreads (RB/HO−CL), OPEC events. TradingView: TVC:USOIL (WTI) · TVC:UKOIL (Brent) · COMEX:HG1! (Copper) — see Cmdty/Crypto tab.

Leader: BTC

RkTicker1m3m6mVol20Score>200dAs of
1+0.5%+21.3%+30.4%21%0.81✓2026-10-21
2-0.0%+5.0%+9.3%9%0.54✓2026-10-21
3+0.3%+0.9%+1.8%0%0.51✓2026-10-21
4-5.3%+9.2%+26.5%24%0.43✓2026-10-21
5+1.9%+2.6%+7.4%9%0.42✓2026-10-21
6-3.0%+4.9%+10.9%16%0.27✓2026-10-21
7-3.1%+5.1%+9.7%15%0.26✓2026-10-21
8-3.6%-1.9%-4.8%17%-0.20✗2026-10-21
9-18.6%-9.8%+0.7%41%-0.23✗2026-10-21
10-5.3%+2.0%-12.9%20%-0.27✗2026-10-21
11-1.5%-2.4%-5.3%10%-0.29✗2026-10-21

Universe: SPY (US), DIA (Dow), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), EWH (HK), TLT (US bonds), EWT (Taiwan), EWY (Korea), EWJ (Japan), GLD, BTC, BIL (cash). Score = mean(1/3/6m ret) ÷ 20d ann. vol. Leader must be > 200d and beat BIL 6m (dual momentum), else CASH. BTC as of its last daily bar (UTC). Tap/hover ticker for full name.

HK & China Market

Cross-check — HK

RedALIGNED RED — strong warning (3/4 gauges) (4 gauges: Liquidity / Momentum / Trader consensus / Sentiment; strong when ≥3/4 same direction or all 4; thresholds err cautious)

Liquidity
Amber
stress pts 3 (3 inputs)
HIBOR ON vs 20d avg +5bp (1)
HIBOR 1M vs 20d avg -10bp (0)
Aggregate Balance vs 20d avg -109 mn (1)
classic tight: Balance ↓ + HIBOR ↑ (+1)
Momentum
Red
0/11 bullish checks
HSI >20/50/200d ✗✗✗ · 3m -5.0% · 6m -10.3%
HSTECH >20/50/200d ✗✗✗ · 3m -19.3% · 6m -25.0%
%>50d 11%
Trader consensus
Red
HK weighted avg -0.88 on −2..+2 (7 traders; core↑)
bearish share 86% of stated stances > 80% → RED
stale(50%) 1
HK core ≥2/3 bearish (excl Ah Ju)
XC weights: Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5
Sentiment
Red
bulls re-added on drop (Eric)
state READD · light RED
bull CBBC d/d +261%
near-money bull share 100.0%

HK Liquidity: HIBOR vs 20d avg + Aggregate Balance vs 20d avg (+1 if classic Balance↓+HIBOR↑); same green/yellow/red pts bands; missing ≠ stress; not SOFR−IORB. HK Momentum: HSI+HSTECH (same MA/return checks) + HSI constituent %>50d when available. HK Trader consensus: same XC weights on HK stances (quorum ≥3). Separate from US Cross-check.

8/10
Red

HK stress — cut HK exposure / hedge.

#WarningPtsDetail
1HIBOR stress0O/N >25bp above 20d avg · neutral
2Aggregate Balance stress0>3% below 20d avg · neutral
3USD/HKD weak side0≥7.84 · neutral
4Southbound outflow15-session net <0 · tight
5HSI breadth >50d weak1<40% above 50d · 11%
6HSI breadth >200d weak1<40% above 200d · 29%
7VHSI high / spike0≥25 or +15% day · 22.1
8HSI below 50d122,935 vs 24,904 (-7.9%); 50d 1w slope -0.70%
9HSI below 200d122,935 vs 25,453 (-9.9%); 200d 1w slope -0.17%
10HSTECH below 50d13,794 vs 4,393 (-13.6%); 50d 1w slope -1.94%; MA hist Tencent
11HSTECH below 200d13,794 vs 4,871 (-22.1%); 200d 1w slope -0.76%
12New lows rising1HSI∪HSTECH NH/NL last3: 0/6, 0/6, 0/19

2026-05-04 · 1/102026-05-05 · 3/102026-05-06 · 1/102026-05-07 · 1/102026-05-08 · 1/102026-05-11 · 1/102026-05-12 · 1/102026-05-13 · 1/102026-05-14 · 1/102026-05-15 · 2/102026-05-18 · 4/102026-05-19 · 3/102026-05-20 · 5/102026-05-21 · 5/102026-05-22 · 6/102026-05-26 · 5/102026-05-27 · 6/102026-05-28 · 6/102026-05-29 · 6/102026-06-01 · 4/102026-06-02 · 1/102026-06-03 · 4/102026-06-04 · 5/102026-06-05 · 6/102026-06-08 · 7/102026-06-09 · 6/102026-06-10 · 7/102026-06-11 · 7/102026-06-12 · 6/102026-06-15 · 6/102026-06-16 · 6/102026-06-17 · 6/102026-06-18 · 7/102026-06-22 · 7/102026-06-23 · 7/102026-06-24 · 8/102026-06-25 · 7/102026-06-26 · 7/102026-06-29 · 8/102026-06-30 · 8/102026-07-02 · 7/102026-07-03 · 7/102026-07-06 · 7/102026-07-07 · 7/102026-07-08 · 7/102026-07-09 · 6/102026-07-10 · 6/102026-07-13 · 6/102026-07-14 · 6/102026-07-15 · 6/102026-07-16 · 3/102026-07-17 · 6/102026-07-20 · 4/102026-07-21 · 3/102026-07-22 · 5/102026-07-23 · 3/102026-07-24 · 4/102026-07-27 · 5/102026-07-28 · 3/102026-07-29 · 2/102026-07-30 · 2/102026-07-31 · 2/102026-08-03 · 2/102026-08-04 · 2/102026-08-05 · 2/102026-08-06 · 3/102026-08-07 · 3/102026-08-10 · 2/102026-08-11 · 3/102026-08-12 · 3/102026-08-13 · 3/102026-08-14 · 4/102026-08-17 · 3/102026-08-18 · 4/102026-08-19 · 5/102026-08-20 · 3/102026-08-21 · 2/102026-08-24 · 3/102026-08-25 · 3/102026-08-26 · 3/102026-08-27 · 3/102026-08-28 · 3/102026-08-31 · 4/102026-09-01 · 4/102026-09-02 · 6/102026-09-03 · 5/102026-09-04 · 4/102026-09-07 · 5/102026-09-08 · 3/102026-09-09 · 5/102026-09-10 · 8/102026-09-11 · 8/102026-09-14 · 8/102026-09-15 · 8/102026-09-16 · 8/102026-09-17 · 8/102026-09-18 · 7/102026-09-21 · 7/102026-09-22 · 7/102026-09-23 · 8/102026-09-24 · 8/102026-09-25 · 8/102026-09-28 · 7/102026-09-29 · 8/102026-09-30 · 8/102026-10-02 · 8/102026-10-05 · 8/102026-10-06 · 7/102026-10-07 · 7/102026-10-08 · 7/102026-10-09 · 7/102026-10-12 · 7/102026-10-13 · 7/102026-10-14 · 7/102026-10-15 · 8/102026-10-16 · 8/102026-10-20 · 8/102026-10-21 · 8/102026-10-22 · 8/102026-10-23 · 8/10
2026-05-04 → 2026-10-23 · dashed: yellow ≥3, red ≥6 · shaded = reconstructed backfill

First warning: 2026-08-24 (60 days ago) · First red: 2026-09-02 (51 days ago) · Triggered first: HSI below 200d, HSTECH below 50d, HSTECH below 200d

Backfill reconstructed from cached daily series; VHSI has no free history (live days only); HIBOR / Aggregate Balance / Southbound history is short, so early backfill days score those as not fired.

1 point each (12 inputs), capped at 10. GREEN 0–2 · YELLOW 3–5 · RED 6+ (same bands as US). Excludes CBBC retail sentiment and trader stances (shown separately). Draft weights, not validated.

Amber
HK liquidity mixed
HIBOR: neutral · Aggregate Balance: neutral · USD/HKD: neutral · Southbound: tight
2.623% +28 bp
as of 2026-10-22
+21 bp · +5 bp (avg 2.575%)
2.745% +7 bp
as of 2026-10-22
-0 bp · -10 bp (avg 2.844%)
HK$54,125 mn -27 mn
as of 2026-10-21 · STALE
-109 mn (avg HK$54,234 mn) · +14 mn · +150 mn
7.8379 88% toward 7.85
as of 2026-10-22
7.75 strong side = inflow · 7.85 weak side = outflow / tight
-9.22 HK$bn
as of 2026-10-22
5-session net -24.0 HK$bn · HKEX

Read: Aggregate Balance ↓ + HIBOR ↑ → classic HKD system tight.

Lamp rule: count tight signals — HIBOR O/N >25bp above 20d avg; Aggregate Balance >3% below 20d avg; USD/HKD ≥7.84 (weak side); Southbound 5-session net <0. ≥2 tight = RED; 1 tight or <2 loose = YELLOW; else GREEN.

Sources: HIBOR — HKAB HKD Interest Settlement Rates (free JSON). Aggregate Balance — HKMA Daily Monetary Statistics Closing Aggregate Balance, hkma.gov.hk (MS HTML; official API often blocked from this host). Units: HIBOR % p.a.; balance HK$ million. HIBOR up ≠ equity turnover. Never invent numbers — missing series show cream/stale badge.

+261%
RedBulls re-added on drop
Retail not capitulated, hope not dead — not a buy reason.
Eric rule: falling day, bulls 殺完又加
as of 2026-10-22 23:05 HKT
Bull CBBC d/d
2,127 → 7,680 (+261%)
HSI day -3.03%
Bear CBBC d/d
5,026 → 2,643 (-47%)
Citi fut-eq
Heavy bull zone
22,800–22,899 (1,274 fut-eq · -85 pt vs HSI)
Heavy bear zone
25,400–25,499 (395 fut-eq · +2,515 pt vs HSI)
Context: near-money / all-market bull share
100.0% / 58.4%
context only — not the light driver

6-day comparison

DateHSIBull / bear (fut-eq)Bull d/dRe-add
10-22-3.03%
7,680
2,643
+261%●
10-21-0.90%
2,127
5,026
+10%
10-20-1.32%
1,934
4,975
+10%
10-16+0.52%
1,765
5,650
-5%n/a
10-15-1.03%
1,852
5,140
+6%
10-14-0.13%
1,744
6,172
—n/a

Bulls re-added on drop fired today only (no streak)

Re-add days in window: 1/5

HSI ref 22,934.68 · ±15% cutoff (Alex). Eric method: CBBC street goods = retail sentiment, not smart money; can't move price. Not US CROWDED. Citi HSI CBBC · Citi citiwarrants.com HSI CBBC ±1000pt · as-of 2026-10-22, 23:05 HKT.

1.22
as of 2026-10-21 00:00 HKT · STALE
5d avg 0.99 · put 472,313 / call 386,707 · HKEX SORC put/call (All underlyings)

Primary retail-sentiment input: Citi HSI CBBC outstanding, read with Eric's method (not the old ≥70% near-bull light). Separate from US Fear & Greed / AAII / CBOE.

22.08
AmberHK vol elevated
Δ1d +11.57% · Investing.com hsi-volatility
as of 2026-10-23 03:23 HKT

History building — saved daily to cache/vhsi_history.json

Lamp: GREEN <20 · YELLOW 20–30 or +10% day · RED ≥30 or +20% day (practical bands, not a trader rule). No free TradingView widget symbol for VHSI found — chart not embedded.

Fed slot (HK equivalent): HKMA Base Rate is set by formula — US fed funds target upper bound + 50bp (or 5d avg of O/N+1M HIBOR if higher). No separate HK policy-odds feed; see US Fed card.

HSI constituents (85): 11% > 50d · 29% > 200d · A/D 1/84 as of 2026-10-22

GroupN% >50d% >200d52w NH / NLNH/NL last3
HSI8511%29%0 / 140/3, 0/5, 0/14
HSTECH303%7%0 / 100/5, 0/4, 0/10
HSI ∪ HSTECH (deduped)969%27%0 / 190/6, 0/6, 0/19
539 adv / 1,450 dec · A/D ratio 0.37 · 52w NH/NL 25/332
as of 2026-10-22 20:59 HKT
UNOFFICIAL — third-party SL886, not HKEX official

% of HSI constituents above 50d / 200d MA from Yahoo .HK daily closes; A/D = HSI constituents up vs down on the day. NH/NL = intraday high/low at 252d extreme (same as US). HSTECH list from AAStocks; combined row dedupes overlap. Market-wide A/D block is unofficial SL886 third-party data (not HKEX).

Date (HK)TypeEventSource
Fri 10-23Hong KongCPI
Nasdaq econ calendar
Fri 10-23Hong KongCPI
Nasdaq econ calendar
Fri 10-23Earnings1099 Sinopharm — Quarter results · 3 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-23Earnings2899 Zijin — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Mon 10-26Earnings2359 Wuxi AppTec — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27ChinaChinese Industrial profit YTD
Nasdaq econ calendar
Tue 10-27Earnings0522 ASMPT — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27Earnings0270 Guangdong Inv — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27Earnings0005 HSBC — 3rd quarter results / interim dividend · Third quarter 2026
HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27Earnings0288 WH Group — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27Earnings (US ADR)HSBC HSBC Holdings plc — n/a US time
Nasdaq earnings
Wed 10-28Earnings1876 Budweiser APAC — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28Earnings0688 COLI — Results · Third quarter 2026
HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28Earnings0857 PetroChina — Results · 3 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28Earnings2318 Ping An — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28Earnings (US ADR)EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. — BMO US time
Nasdaq earnings
Thu 10-29HSI futures/options expiryOct contract — rule-derived (second-last HK business day); confirm on HKEX
rule
Thu 10-29Hong KongExports
Nasdaq econ calendar
Thu 10-29Hong KongImports
Nasdaq econ calendar
Thu 10-29Hong KongTrade Balance
Nasdaq econ calendar
Thu 10-29Earnings1211 BYD — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29Earnings0762 China Unicom — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29Earnings0175 Geely — Quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29Earnings6690 Haier — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29Earnings0300 Midea — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29Earnings0386 Sinopec — 3rd quarter results
HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29Earnings (US ADR)TAL TAL Education Group — BMO US time
Nasdaq earnings
Fri 10-30Earnings3988 Bank of China — Results · quarter ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings3328 BankComm — Quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings2388 BOC Hong Kong — 3rd quarter results / interim dividend · Third quarter 2026
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings0939 CCB — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings2628 China Life — Results · quarter ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings3968 CM Bank — 3rd quarter results · period ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings0883 CNOOC — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings2333 Great Wall — 3rd quarter results · 3 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30Earnings1398 ICBC — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN
Mon 11-02ChinaRatingDog Manufacturing PMI
Nasdaq econ calendar
Tue 11-03Earnings (US ADR)YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. — BMO US time
Nasdaq earnings
Wed 11-04Hong KongGDP
Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04Hong KongGDP
Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04Hong KongRetail Sales
Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04Hong KongS&P Global Manufacturing PMI
Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04ChinaRatingDog Services PMI
Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04Earnings (US ADR)ATHM Autohome Inc. — BMO US time
Nasdaq earnings
Fri 11-06Earnings0388 HKEX — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26
HKEX BMN

Earnings: HKEX Board Meeting Notices (confirmed board/results dates for major names) + Nasdaq China/HK ADRs. Rows labelled unconfirmed are Yahoo estimates only (not on HKEX BMN). Not wired: HSI quarterly review (mid-Feb/May/Aug/Nov TBC); PBoC/HKMA meeting dates; full IPO pipeline. AAStocks calendar page exists but has no stable free API — skipped.

ADRClose $1dHK-implied HKDvs HK closeAs of
BABA104.41-3.9%102.29-1.4%2026-10-21
JD25.79-3.6%101.07-1.6%2026-10-21
BIDU78.82-2.1%77.22-0.6%2026-10-21
NTES122.98-1.7%192.78-0.9%2026-10-21
TCOM39.31-2.5%308.11-1.5%2026-10-21
BILI13.60-2.3%106.60-0.9%2026-10-21
NIO3.36-2.0%26.34+0.3%2026-10-21
LI11.50-3.6%45.07-1.6%2026-10-21
XPEV9.36-5.5%36.68-0.8%2026-10-21
PDD78.72-3.6%——2026-10-21
KWEB23.74-2.5%——2026-10-21
FXI32.94-1.7%——2026-10-21

Implied = ADR × USDHKD ÷ ADR ratio (BABA 8, JD 2, BIDU 8, NTES 5, TCOM/BILI/NIO 1, LI/XPEV 2 — ratios hard-coded, verify). HK close is prior HK session. Index vs MAs card removed — levels/slopes live on Exit-door HSI/HSTECH rows.

Trader consensus

US stocks: bearish 7 · neutral 3 · bullish 1 · no US view 6 · bearish share 64% → Overall: bearish
HK stocks: bearish 6 · neutral 1 · no HK view 10 · bearish share 86% → RED → Overall: bearish
very bearishbearishneutralbullishvery bullishno view

US stances filled: 11/17 (quorum ≥4) · weighted avg -0.50 on −2..+2 · HK filled: 7/17 · weighted avg -0.85 · stale (>10d) weighted 50%: 3 · Headline band (exit-door) Green

Other markets: Gold: bearish (n=1, avg -1.00) · Crypto: neutral (n=1, avg +0.00)

: not triggered : not triggered

TraderUS stocksHK stocksGoldCryptoAs ofExecutive summarySource
J Lawbearish———2026-10-20
  • Exited TQQQ, trimmed SOXL, raised cash
  • broad risk-off in AI hardware/semis
  • says the best trading window of the year is behind us
  • Oct 20 X: sarcastic on CRWV 'found a way to make the chart look bullish' — still sceptical, no re-risk
  • 已清 TQQQ、減 SOXL、提高現金
  • AI 硬件／半導體普遍減風險
  • 指「今年最佳交易窗口已過」
  • 10/20 X：嘲諷 CRWV「整到圖好似轉強」— 仍然審慎，未重新加倉
X · X · X
★ Ah Ju 阿豬bearish——neutral2026-10-19
  • AI credit domino risk (cloud/compute bonds, circular financing)
  • US yields at 20-year highs as a crash precursor
  • selling SPCX into strength ahead of Nov lockup
  • BTC/ETH at key levels (neutral)
  • 警示 AI 信貸骨牌風險（雲／算力債、循環融資）
  • 美債孳息逼近20年高位視作股災前兆
  • SPCX 趁強沽貨、留意11月鎖定期
  • BTC／ETH 處關鍵位（中性）
YouTube · YouTube · X
Ringo 短炒波士—neutral——2026-10-20
  • HSI range: 24,000 support / 25,000 resistance
  • took profit ahead of CPI
  • would buy near 24,000
  • watching US dips to buy
  • HSI broke 24,000 on Oct 20
  • 恒指區間：24,000 支持／25,000 阻力
  • CPI 前已獲利
  • 近 24,000 會考慮做多
  • 美股睇回調買入
  • 10/20 恒指已破 24,000
YouTube · YouTube
小金人 Oscar (金人金語)bearishbearish——2026-10-04 needs update
  • Global sovereign yield surge is the 3–6 month main theme
  • most assets look overpriced
  • AI still OK
  • HK/banks weak
  • 全球主權債孳息急升是未來3–6個月主軸
  • 多數資產偏貴
  • AI 仍可
  • 港股／銀行偏弱
YouTube
★ Sky Sir 張士佳 (Sky財經天地)neutralbearish——2026-10-22
  • US neutral: trimmed at NQ highs, ~9% index position left, did not call a full exit
  • sees a CDS-driven shakeout before further upside, waiting for a buy-back signal
  • HK cautious/short bias: Oct 22 short note reiterates path from 26k→24k toward 22,xxx (~1k+ more downside)
  • holding stocks only vs actively shorting are two different market regimes
  • 美股中性：納指高位已減倉，指數倉約剩9%，未喊全面離場
  • 預期 CDS 驅動震倉後再上，等回補訊號
  • 港股偏淡／偏空：10/22 空倉觀點重申由26k→24k 再向22,xxx（約再跌1,000點以上）
  • 「淨係揸股蝕」同「主動出擊」係兩個級嘅市
YouTube · YouTube · YouTube · YouTube
Uncle Stock Notes 大叔美股筆記bullish———2026-10-22
  • Oct 21 notes: 'US stocks look safe today'
  • AI buildout intact (SpaceX power buys GEV/ETN
  • ABF/packaging into 2027
  • HBM/memory tight through 2027Q1). Bought some ARM on the dip (edge AI with QCOM)
  • likes ASX under 35 / wait on AMKR
  • SPCX earnings solid but wait for a dip
  • Nvidia capacity prepay = don't chase headlines—check valuation
  • Still prefers MRVL/AVGO/LITE/NBIS themes
  • 10/21 筆記：「今天美股算安全」
  • AI 建設邏輯未破（SpaceX 電力相關買 GEV／ETN
  • ABF／封裝看到2027
  • HBM／內存緊至2027Q1）
  • 回調買咗啲 ARM（邊緣 AI 聯 QCOM）
  • 鍾意 ASX <35、AMKR 再等
  • SPCX 業績穩但等低位
  • Nvidia 預付產能＝唔好追消息—要睇估值
unclestocknotes.substack.com · unclestocknotes.substack.com
★ 陳刀仔 DataLouder 數說財經bearish———2026-10-22
  • No usable transcript for the Oct 22 video (captions/auto-subs disabled — stance NOT re-scored from the title asking if BTC/US stocks are a last boarding chance)
  • Holding US bearish from the Oct 19 risk-signal clip: US risk signal triggered ~Oct 13 and again by Oct 19
  • fund-flow backdrop weak for ~1 month with no improvement
  • Medium-term constructive note from an earlier midterm backtest (pre-election low then ~+15% median over 12m) unchanged pending a transcript
  • 10/22 影片無可用字幕（字幕／自動字幕關閉 — 未按標題「比特幣／美股可能是最後上車時間
  • 」重評立場）
  • 維持 10/19 風險訊號片段嘅美股偏淡：美股風險訊號約10/13 觸發、10/19 再確認
  • 資金流弱約一個月未改善
  • 早前中期回測嘅中期偏建設性看法（大選前低位後12個月中位約+15%）暫不變，等有逐字稿再更新
YouTube · YouTube · YouTube
★ Eric 投機先要溫功課neutralbearishbearish—2026-10-22
  • Oct 22 LIVE (~90m): HK bearish — says the year's high is already in since Sep 28
  • after breaking 22,500, three downside methods converge near 19,767 (90% implied vol), 19,612 (forward PE ~11x), and ~20,500 (1:1 symmetry)
  • Forward PE mid ~12–13 'not very attractive'
  • index level ≠ cheap. Exit rule: cut when wrong, don't hedge with options to drag
  • on the way down don't catch the knife before 1:1
  • US: no clear index call (only discussed crash risk / AI upstream links) → keep prior neutral
  • Gold: head-and-shoulders broke neckline, bearish to at least ~3,500
  • 3,950 not treated as strong support. Crypto not discussed
  • 10/22 LIVE（約90分鐘）：港股偏淡 —「全年高位已見」自9/28
  • 穿22,500後三路計低位匯聚約19,767（引申波幅90%）、19,612（Forward PE~11x）、約20,500（1:1對稱）
  • Forward PE 中位約12–13「並非十分吸引」
  • 指數點數唔等於平
  • 離場：做錯即止損、唔好期權對沖拖倉
  • 下跌途中1:1未到唔撈
  • 美股：無清晰指數方向（只談股災風險／AI上游聯動）→維持先前中性
  • 黄金：頭肩頂破頸線，睇淡至至少約3,500
YouTube · YouTube · YouTube
孫子大戶bearishbearish——2026-10-21
  • Recent lives/Threads: AI credit risk (CoreWeave CDS / ORCL / NBIS financing chain) flagged as a bigger danger than price
  • HSI 24,400 / 23,600 key levels
  • southbound flow flipped after ~7 weeks of inflow
  • capital-preservation framing (protect principal first
  • HK AI hardware bleeding not stopped). Watching US tech/NQ — not chasing
  • 近期直播／Threads：AI 信貸風險（CoreWeave CDS／ORCL／NBIS 融資鏈）警示大過股價本身
  • 恒指 24,400／23,600 關鍵
  • 北水約7周流入後掉頭
  • 先守本金框架（今次先守本金／港股 AI 硬件未止血）
  • 美股科技／納指觀望，唔追
Threads · YouTube · q.futunn.com
艾文（我要炒期貨）bearishbearish——2026-10-20
  • MTTV/MoneyTab futures show Oct 20: HSI break of 24,000 called extremely critical
  • Nasdaq finally pulling back after highs
  • episode framed around scenarios and trading psychology (the 'should have' trap), not a dip-buy call
  • MTTV／MoneyTab「我要炒期貨」10/20：恒指破24,000 稱為極關鍵
  • 納指高位後終於回調
  • 節目圍繞情境同交易心理（「應該」陷阱），並非回調買入號召
money-tab.com · money-tab.com · aimenzone.com
Mila Yuenbearish———2026-10-05 needs update
  • YT Oct 4–5: US 10-year through ~5.6% and long-bond debasement framing
  • stresses cash and patience, avoid chasing
  • Older April 'stability' bull narrative superseded by October yield/debt focus for stance
  • YT 10/4–10/5：美債10年期穿越約5.6%，長債「貨幣稀釋」框架
  • 強調現金同耐心、唔好追
  • 較早4月「維穩」偏多敘事已被10月孳息／債務焦點取代
YouTube · milayuen.com · kolscanner.com
Bubble Dragon—bearish——2026-10-22
  • Oct 22 live (no captions yet). Prior Oct 21: cut ~HK$10M of ~14M, can't find buys
  • AI concerns unresolved
  • HK very hard
  • only short-term trades
  • keeps dividend stocks. Stance held bearish
  • 10/22 直播（暫未有字幕）
  • 先前10/21：約1,400萬倉切走約1,000萬，搵唔到買點
  • AI 疑慮未解
  • 港股好難做
  • 只做短線
  • 留住息股
  • 立場維持偏淡
YouTube · YouTube · YouTube
James & Dennis (Aireturn)neutral———2026-10-21
  • James (Oct 21, pre-market show): not a Oct-2007 style top/bear start — AI underlying demand (GPU/HBM/compute) still rising, no A1 'debt bomb' coverage, SOFR−IORB still negative, credit spreads not spiking
  • expects a choppy grind higher with limited rebound momentum (few shorts)
  • real-yield-driven revaluation
  • TSLA/SpaceX merger = strong catalyst
  • Watch CoreWeave/Oracle bond yields (9%→15–16%) and HY spreads
  • 經濟前 James（10/21）：唔係2007年10月式見頂／熊市開波 — AI 實質需求（GPU／HBM／算力）仍升，未見 A1「債彈」報道，SOFR−IORB 仍負、信貸息差未急升
  • 預期反复向上、反彈動能有限（淡倉唔多）
  • 實質息帶動重估
  • TSLA／SpaceX 合併＝強催化
  • 留意 CoreWeave／Oracle 債息（9%→15–16%）同高收益息差
YouTube · patreon.com
莊主 劉偉強 (Logic 投資山莊)————2026-10-22
  • Latest public pieces are stock/sector columns (e.g
  • Alibaba AI spend vs cash flow) without a clear dated US/HK index regime call
  • Pending next Logic / am730 market piece
  • 最新公開內容多為個股／板塊專欄（例如阿里 AI 開支對現金流），未見明確、有日期嘅美／港指數級Regime 判斷
  • 待下一篇 Logic 投資山莊／am730 市況文章
YouTube · am730.com.hk
Alex Mok 美股策略研究（莫家強）————2026-10-22
  • No fresh free/public regime stance as of this as-of
  • Tracking FB / Patreon (free titles) / IG for the next bull-bear call
  • 截至本更新日期未有新鮮免費／公開Regime 立場
  • 繼續追蹤 FB／Patreon（免費標題）／IG，等下一次牛熊判斷
patreon.com · Instagram · alexmokinvest.teachable.com
Martin Luk————2026-10-22
  • Rarely gives explicit opinions — default neutral / no market comment
  • SPECIAL WATCH only: if he shorts an index, flag and overweight that signal
  • No index-short alert as of this as-of
  • 甚少公開明確立場 — 預設中性／無市況評論
  • 只設特別留意：若對指數做空，須標註並加重該訊號
  • 截至本更新日期未見指數做空警報
—
Calvin Tsai————2026-10-05 needs update
  • Latest X post is non-market (health). No current crypto view
  • 最新 X 帖與市場無關（健康）
  • 目前無加密貨幣觀點
X
Core-four (US/overall) — status: triggered (3/4) · ≥3/4 of ★ Ah Ju + Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric bearish/very bearish → treat band as ≥ Yellow regardless of score.
HK core (excl Ah Ju) — status: triggered (2/3) · ≥2/3 of ★ Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric HK-bearish → treat HK band as ≥ Yellow.
Rules

GREEN LIGHT condition: if more than half of filled US stances (weighted; stale ones count 50%) are bullish/very bullish, AND risk score ≤2, AND SPX > 50d, AND ≥50% of S&P 500 > 50d → may press harder, still within the band's risk limits (cf. Apr 2026). The followed traders agreeing feeds only this flag.

CROWDED condition: outside/public sentiment is euphoric (at least 2 of 3: CNN Fear & Greed ≥75 extreme greed, AAII bull−bear ≥+20pp, CBOE equity put/call 5d avg ≤0.50; now 0/3), AND SPX ≥5% above 50d (now +0.7%), AND breadth is fading (%>50d down >5pp in 10d or A/D line below its 50d; now no) → don't chase, tighten stops. Trader stances are NOT used.

Core-four rule (US/overall): if ≥3/4 of ★ Ah Ju + Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric are bearish or very bearish → treat band as ≥ Yellow.

HK core rule: Ah Ju has no HK view — if ≥2/3 of ★ Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric are HK bearish/very bearish → treat HK band as ≥ Yellow.

Overall stance: per market, weighted average of filled stances on −2..+2 (very bearish −2 … very bullish +2); a stance older than 10 days is marked needs update and gets 50% weight: ≥+1.5 very bullish, ≥+0.5 bullish, >−0.5 neutral, >−1.5 bearish, else very bearish. The US score and GREEN LIGHT use US stances only, so an HK-bearish view does not lower the US score. Blank = trader gave no view for that market.