Cross-check — US
MIXED — mostly YELLOW; Liquidity is GREEN (only 1 differs — not full alignment) (3 independent gauges; all aligned = strong signal; thresholds err cautious) · Exit-door headline:
SRF/repo 0.0bn (0)
HY OAS 333bp, +73 vs 60d low (1)
NDX >20/50/200d ✗✗✓ · 3m +4.8% · 6m +10.7%
%>50d 56% · NH−NL +23
XC weights: Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5
US Liquidity: SOFR−IORB / SRF / HY OAS stress pts; 0–1 green, 2–3 yellow, 4+ red; missing ≠ stress. US Momentum: SPX+NDX ≥90% bullish checks for green; NDX short-MA fail or SPX/NDX diverge caps green→yellow. US Trader consensus (XC weights Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5): ≥+0.5 green, −1.0
Exit-door risk score
Normal — full exposure per system. Price inputs as of 2026-10-21
| # | Warning | Type | Pts | Detail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| W1 | Funding stress | slow | 0/1 | SOFR−IORB last3 -3, -2, -2bp; repo 0.0bn |
| W1b | SOFR > IORB ≥3 consecutive days (user rule) | slow | 0/1 | current run above 0: 0 day(s) |
| W2 | Credit spreads widening | slow | 2/2 | HY 333bp vs 60d low 260bp, 20d high 331bp |
| W3 | Breadth divergence | fast | 0/1 | SPX -0.8% vs 52wH; %>50d 56%; A/D line > 50d |
| W4 | New lows rising | fast | 0/1 | NH/NL last3: 11/3, 25/1, 26/3 |
| W5 | Leaders breaking | fast | 0/1 | top-20 below 50d 10%; strong-idx 18.4% vs 20d high 18.4% |
| W6 | Fed hawkish (partial) | slow | 0/1 | 2y 4.79% Δ1m +3bp · FedWatch-style odds shown separately (info only, not scored) |
| W7a | SPX < 50d | fast | 0/1 | SPX 7,757 vs 50d 7,705 |
| W7b | SPX < 200d & 200d falling | slow | 0/1 | 200d 7,284, 1m slope +1.22% |
| W8 | Volatility regime | fast | 0/1 | VIX 16.7 / VIX3M 18.7 |
Draft weights from spec §10, not yet validated. W6 = 2y Δ1m only; fed-funds-futures odds are shown as info and not scored.
Liquidity & rates
SOFR − IORB spread, 12 months (bp)
Today: -2 bp · 5-day avg -2.0 bp · days >0 in 12m: 90 as of 2026-10-21
FRED SOFR − IORB, daily. Red shading + red dots = spread > 0 (SOFR above IORB, funding tight). Dashed grey = month-ends; orange = quarter-ends (QE).
Sentiment — Fear & Greed
CNN Fear & Greed
prev close 31 · 1w 30 · 1m 35
Public sentiment — euphoria check
Euphoria = at least 2 of 3 available: CNN F&G 29 (euphoric if ≥75); AAII bull−bear -2.9pp (euphoric if ≥+20pp); equity P/C 5d avg 0.58 (euphoric if ≤0.50). Now: 0/3 → not euphoric. Feeds the CROWDED flag (not the exit-door score).
VIX / VIX3M term structure
VIX 16.68 / VIX3M 18.72 · 20d max 0.975
Fast indicator, info only (W8 already counts VIX > VIX3M; weights unchanged). Yahoo ^VIX/^VIX3M · cross-check CBOE official 10-21: VIX 16.68 / VIX3M 18.72 = 0.891 vs Yahoo 0.891 (match).
Fed funds futures — FedWatch-style odds (derived estimate)
| FOMC | Pre | Post | Δ bp | Implied odds of 25bp move | Cum. vs EFFR bp | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 3.880% | 3.905% | +2.5 | hike ≈10% | +2 | next-month contract ZQX26.CBT |
| 2026-12-09 | 3.905% | 4.116% | +21.1 | hike ≈85% | +24 | meeting-month contract ZQZ26.CBT |
| 2027-01-27 | 4.116% | 4.215% | +9.9 | hike ≈39% | +33 | next-month contract ZQG27.CBT |
DERIVED ESTIMATE, not CME FedWatch (CME blocks scripts). Start = EFFR 3.88% (NY Fed, 2026-10-20). Implied rate = 100 − ZQ settle (Yahoo, CBOT 30-day fed funds). CME-style month-average method; odds = |Δ| ÷ 25bp. Contracts: ZQV26.CBT 96.115 → 3.885% (10-22) · ZQX26.CBT 96.095 → 3.905% (10-22) · ZQZ26.CBT 95.945 → 4.055% (10-22) · ZQF27.CBT 95.875 → 4.125% (10-22) · ZQG27.CBT 95.785 → 4.215% (10-22) · ZQH27.CBT 95.710 → 4.290% (10-22)
US breadth — S&P 500
as of 2026-10-21 universe 503 current constituents (Wikipedia) — survivorship caveatBreadth divergence: not flagged SPX -0.8% vs 52w high (near = within 2%: yes) · % > 50d 56% vs 20-session peak 56% (drop 0 pts; flag at >10-pt drop). Info only.
New highs, cap ≥ $2B (26), sorted by RS: MRNA, VEEV, CRL, ZBRA, CNC, HAS, APA, FDS, A, ADP, MTD, WAT, CAH, COP, V, TMO, WST, ELV, CVX, MA, MET, TRV, CTAS, HLT, CDW, BRK-B
NH/NL = intraday high/low at 252d extreme. Cap from Nasdaq screener; 0 new-high names lacked cap data and are excluded from named list.
Strong-stock index
as of 2026-10-21Top 20
| # | Ticker | Sector | Cap | RS pct | RS1m | RS3m | RS6m | vs 52wH | >50d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNA Moderna | Health Care | $98B | 99 | +35% | +312% | +307% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| 2 | VEEV Veeva Systems | Health Care | $52B | 99 | +23% | +70% | +80% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| 3 | MPC Marathon Petroleum | Energy | $131B | 99 | +20% | +44% | +95% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| 4 | P Everpure | Information Technology | $44B | 98 | +18% | +66% | +74% | -16.9% | ✓ |
| 5 | ILMN Illumina, Inc. | Health Care | $43B | 98 | +14% | +37% | +99% | -8.6% | ✓ |
| 6 | CRL Charles River Laboratories | Health Care | $16B | 98 | +21% | +44% | +72% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| 7 | PTC PTC Inc. | Information Technology | $21B | 98 | +39% | +64% | +27% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| 8 | VLO Valero Energy | Energy | $126B | 98 | +16% | +37% | +73% | -5.4% | ✓ |
| 9 | ACN Accenture | Information Technology | $161B | 97 | +32% | +67% | +19% | -15.1% | ✓ |
| 10 | NTAP NetApp | Information Technology | $43B | 97 | +13% | +26% | +81% | -9.8% | ✓ |
| 11 | PSX Phillips 66 | Energy | $116B | 97 | +13% | +35% | +68% | -3.1% | ✓ |
| 12 | IT Gartner | Information Technology | $14B | 97 | +23% | +57% | +29% | -15.9% | ✓ |
| 13 | ZBRA Zebra Technologies | Information Technology | $18B | 97 | +8% | +45% | +56% | -0.5% | ✓ |
| 14 | NOW ServiceNow | Information Technology | $158B | 96 | +12% | +59% | +37% | -20.6% | ✓ |
| 15 | DDOG Datadog | Information Technology | $98B | 96 | +10% | +7% | +90% | -9.2% | ✓ |
| 16 | WDAY Workday, Inc. | Information Technology | $49B | 96 | +8% | +52% | +48% | -18.0% | ✓ |
| 17 | CRWD CrowdStrike | Information Technology | $245B | 96 | -4% | +25% | +89% | -16.6% | ✓ |
| 18 | HUM Humana | Health Care | $51B | 96 | +14% | +3% | +80% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| 19 | DELL Dell Technologies | Information Technology | $309B | 95 | -11% | +6% | +109% | -18.3% | ✗ |
| 20 | HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise | Information Technology | $77B | 95 | -5% | +17% | +89% | -20.9% | ✗ |
Sectors
| Sector | N | Avg RS pct | Δ1w | % strong | Δ1w pp | % >50d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Care | 60.0 | 71 | +0.9 | 43% | +0 | 78% |
| Energy | 21.0 | 67 | +0.3 | 38% | +5 | 81% |
| Information Technology | 75.0 | 58 | -10.6 | 32% | -3 | 56% |
| Consumer Staples | 33.0 | 58 | +1.8 | 15% | +3 | 73% |
| Financials | 76.0 | 50 | +7.7 | 11% | +5 | 45% |
| Materials | 24.0 | 46 | +2.6 | 8% | +0 | 67% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 47.0 | 43 | +4.3 | 21% | +13 | 49% |
| Industrials | 81.0 | 40 | -2.5 | 9% | +0 | 49% |
| Utilities | 31.0 | 36 | -2.0 | 0% | +0 | 68% |
| Communication Services | 22.0 | 36 | +2.3 | 5% | +0 | 36% |
| Real Estate | 30.0 | 33 | +1.1 | 3% | +3 | 20% |
Calendar
| Date (US) | In | Event | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 6d | FOMC decision | October 27-28 (federalreserve.gov); statement 14:00 ET |
| 2026-11-11 | 20d | CPI | Core CPI (Nasdaq econ calendar) |
| 2026-12-09 | 48d | FOMC decision | December 8-9* (federalreserve.gov); statement 14:00 ET |
| — | d | NFP | MISSING — not found in Nasdaq econ calendar next 45d (BLS site blocks bots) |
Key earnings, next 2 weeks (≥$200B cap, mega-caps, or RS top-20)
| Date (US) | Sym | Name | When | Cap | EPS est |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | PG | Procter & Gamble Company (The) | BMO | $365B | $1.89 |
| 2026-10-22 | VLO | Valero Energy Corporation | BMO | $126B | $21.28 |
| 2026-10-23 | AXP | American Express Company | BMO | $215B | $4.47 |
| 2026-10-27 | HSBC | HSBC Holdings plc | n/a | $319B | $2.13 |
| 2026-10-27 | KO | Coca-Cola Company (The) | BMO | $402B | $0.87 |
| 2026-10-27 | NVS | Novartis AG | BMO | $293B | $2.25 |
| 2026-10-27 | V | Visa Inc. | AMC | $726B | $3.43 |
| 2026-10-28 | GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | BMO | $247B | $4.03 |
| 2026-10-28 | GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | AMC | $4094B | $2.94 |
| 2026-10-28 | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | AMC | $4094B | $2.94 |
| 2026-10-28 | KLAC | KLA Corporation | AMC | $213B | $1.18 |
| 2026-10-28 | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | AMC | $3957B | $4.71 |
| 2026-10-28 | NOW | ServiceNow, Inc. | AMC | $158B | $0.56 |
| 2026-10-28 | PSX | Phillips 66 | BMO | $116B | $12.02 |
| 2026-10-29 | AMZN | Amazon.com, Inc. | AMC | $2830B | $2.01 |
| 2026-10-29 | CAT | Caterpillar, Inc. | BMO | $340B | $7.12 |
| 2026-10-29 | ILMN | Illumina, Inc. | AMC | $43B | $1.38 |
| 2026-10-29 | INTC | Intel Corporation | AMC | $491B | $0.28 |
| 2026-10-29 | LIN | Linde plc | BMO | $231B | $4.52 |
| 2026-10-29 | LLY | Eli Lilly and Company | BMO | $1196B | $5.38 |
| 2026-10-29 | MA | Mastercard Incorporated | BMO | $545B | $5.14 |
| 2026-10-29 | MRK | Merck & Company, Inc. | BMO | $370B | $2.12 |
| 2026-10-29 | SHEL | Shell PLC | BMO | $289B | $3.25 |
| 2026-10-29 | SNDK | Sandisk Corporation | AMC | $200B | $45.22 |
| 2026-10-30 | ABBV | AbbVie Inc. | BMO | $511B | $3.76 |
| 2026-10-30 | AZN | AstraZeneca PLC | BMO | $256B | $2.16 |
| 2026-10-30 | CVX | Chevron Corporation | BMO | $446B | $4.78 |
| 2026-10-30 | XOM | ExxonMobil Holdings Corporatio | BMO | $731B | $3.96 |
| 2026-11-02 | AAPL | Apple Inc. | AMC | $5020B | $2 |
| 2026-11-02 | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | AMC | $485B | $0.34 |
| 2026-11-03 | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | AMC | $902B | $1.68 |
| 2026-11-03 | AMGN | Amgen Inc. | AMC | $237B | $5.72 |
| 2026-11-03 | ANET | Arista Networks, Inc. | AMC | $232B | $0.99 |
| 2026-11-03 | IT | Gartner, Inc. | BMO | $14B | $2.86 |
| 2026-11-03 | MPC | Marathon Petroleum Corporation | BMO | $131B | $25.63 |
| 2026-11-03 | SHOP | Shopify Inc. | BMO | $226B | $0.33 |
| 2026-11-03 | ZBRA | Zebra Technologies Corporation | BMO | $18B | $4.21 |
| 2026-11-04 | ARM | Arm Holdings plc | AMC | $241B | $0.22 |
| 2026-11-04 | CRL | Charles River Laboratories Int | BMO | $16B | $2.98 |
| 2026-11-04 | DDOG | Datadog, Inc. | BMO | $98B | $0.18 |
| 2026-11-04 | PTC | PTC Inc. | AMC | $21B | $1.59 |
| 2026-11-04 | TM | Toyota Motor Corp Ltd Ord | n/a | $254B |
Source: Nasdaq earnings calendar (unofficial API), pulled 2026-10-22 20:52 HKT. BMO/AMC are US Eastern sessions; AMC lands ~04:00–05:00 HKT next day. Rows within 48h highlighted.
Gold / Bitcoin strength
Gold vs BTC, 1 month: -2.4% (BTC stronger)
Strength only — not a trade signal. Score = 1 point each for: price > 50d avg, price > 200d avg, 200d avg rising (vs 20 bars ago), 1m change > 0, 3m change > 0. 4–5 = STRONG, 2–3 = NEUTRAL, 0–1 = WEAK. Changes are calendar 7/30/91 days; averages are 50/200 daily bars (BTC trades 7 days a week). Yahoo Finance via yfinance; sparkline 250 bars with dashed 200d avg.
Capital-flow rotation
Leader: BTC-USD
| Rk | Ticker | 1m | 3m | 6m | Vol20 | Score | >200d | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC-USD | +0.5% | +21.3% | +30.4% | 21% | 0.81 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 2 | SPY | -0.0% | +5.0% | +9.3% | 9% | 0.54 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 3 | BIL | +0.3% | +0.9% | +1.8% | 0% | 0.51 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 4 | EWT | -5.3% | +9.2% | +26.5% | 24% | 0.43 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 5 | DIA | +1.9% | +2.6% | +7.4% | 9% | 0.42 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 6 | QQQ | -3.0% | +4.9% | +10.9% | 16% | 0.27 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 7 | EWJ | -3.1% | +5.1% | +9.7% | 15% | 0.26 | ✓ | 2026-10-21 |
| 8 | EWH | -3.6% | -1.9% | -4.8% | 17% | -0.20 | ✗ | 2026-10-21 |
| 9 | EWY | -18.6% | -9.8% | +0.7% | 41% | -0.23 | ✗ | 2026-10-21 |
| 10 | GLD | -5.3% | +2.0% | -12.9% | 20% | -0.27 | ✗ | 2026-10-21 |
| 11 | TLT | -1.5% | -2.4% | -5.3% | 10% | -0.29 | ✗ | 2026-10-21 |
Universe: SPY (US), DIA (Dow), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), EWH (HK), TLT (US bonds), EWT (Taiwan), EWY (Korea), EWJ (Japan), GLD, BTC-USD, BIL (cash). Score = mean(1/3/6m ret) ÷ 20d ann. vol. Leader must be > 200d and beat BIL 6m (dual momentum), else CASH. BTC as of its last daily bar (UTC). Tap/hover ticker for full name.
Cross-check — HK
MIXED — caution warranted (red: Momentum); amber: Liquidity, Trader consensus (3 independent gauges; all aligned = strong signal; thresholds err cautious)
HIBOR 1M vs 20d avg -10bp (0)
Aggregate Balance vs 20d avg -109 mn (1)
classic tight: Balance ↓ + HIBOR ↑ (+1)
HSTECH >20/50/200d ✗✗✗ · 3m — · 6m —
%>50d 11%
XC weights: Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5
HK Liquidity: HIBOR vs 20d avg + Aggregate Balance vs 20d avg (+1 if classic Balance↓+HIBOR↑); same green/yellow/red pts bands; missing ≠ stress; not SOFR−IORB. HK Momentum: HSI+HSTECH (same MA/return checks) + HSI constituent %>50d when available. HK Trader consensus: same XC weights on HK stances (quorum ≥3). Separate from US Cross-check.
HK market
HK retail (CBBC)
near-money bull (±1000pt)
all-market bull 58.1% / bear 41.9%
HSI ref 22,934.68 · bull heavy ~22,800–22,899 (1188 fut-eq) · bear heavy ~25,400–25,499 (377 fut-eq). Lights: GREEN 40–60 · YELLOW lean · RED ≥70 euphoria / ≤30 panic. Not US CROWDED. Citi HSI CBBC · Citi citiwarrants.com HSI CBBC ±1000pt · as-of 2026-10-22, 20:28 HKT.
HK funding liquidity
Read: Aggregate Balance ↓ + HIBOR ↑ → classic HKD system tight.
Sources: HIBOR — HKAB HKD Interest Settlement Rates (free JSON). Aggregate Balance — HKMA Daily Monetary Statistics Closing Aggregate Balance, hkma.gov.hk (MS HTML; official API often blocked from this host). Units: HIBOR % p.a.; balance HK$ million. HIBOR up ≠ equity turnover. Never invent numbers — missing series show cream/stale badge.
HSI constituents (85): 11% > 50d · 29% > 200d · A/D 1/84 as of 2026-10-22
Overnight China ADRs
| ADR | Close $ | 1d | HK-implied HKD | vs HK close | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BABA | 104.41 | -3.9% | 102.31 | +5.1% | 2026-10-21 |
| JD | 25.79 | -3.6% | 101.09 | +2.8% | 2026-10-21 |
| BIDU | 78.82 | -2.1% | 77.24 | +2.8% | 2026-10-21 |
| NTES | 122.98 | -1.7% | 192.81 | +6.1% | 2026-10-21 |
| TCOM | 39.31 | -2.5% | 308.16 | +0.6% | 2026-10-21 |
| BILI | 13.60 | -2.3% | 106.61 | +3.0% | 2026-10-21 |
| NIO | 3.36 | -2.0% | 26.34 | +4.2% | 2026-10-21 |
| LI | 11.50 | -3.6% | 45.08 | +3.9% | 2026-10-21 |
| XPEV | 9.36 | -5.5% | 36.69 | +3.9% | 2026-10-21 |
| PDD | 78.72 | -3.6% | — | — | 2026-10-21 |
| KWEB | 23.74 | -2.5% | — | — | 2026-10-21 |
| FXI | 32.94 | -1.7% | — | — | 2026-10-21 |
Implied = ADR × USDHKD ÷ ADR ratio (BABA 8, JD 2, BIDU 8, NTES 5, TCOM/BILI/NIO 1, LI/XPEV 2 — ratios hard-coded, verify). HK close is prior HK session.
Southbound (Stock Connect, SSE+SZSE) net buy: -9.22 HK$bn as of 2026-10-22 buy 44.5bn / sell 53.7bn · last 5 sessions sum -24.0bn (10-15 -5.1, 10-16 -3.6, 10-20 -1.7, 10-21 -4.4, 10-22 -9.2)
Source: HKEX official Stock Connect daily statistics (hkex.com.hk). Net = buy − sell turnover (HK$ mn in HKEX table). Single official publisher; no third-party feeds used.
Trader consensus
US stances filled: 11/17 (quorum ≥4) · weighted avg -0.50 on −2..+2 · HK filled: 7/17 · weighted avg -0.85 · stale (>10d) weighted 50%: 3 · Headline band (exit-door)
Other markets: Gold: — (n=0) · Crypto: neutral (n=1, avg +0.00)
GREEN LIGHT: not triggered CROWDED: not triggered
| Trader | US stocks | HK stocks | Gold | Crypto | As of | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J Law | bearish | — | — | — | 2026-10-20 | Exited TQQQ, trimmed SOXL, raised cash; broad risk-off in AI hardware/semis; 'best trading window of the year is behind us'. 10-20 X: sarcastic CRWV 'found a way to make chart look bullish' (🙃) — still sceptical, no re-risk. |
| ★ Ah Ju 阿豬 | bearish | — | — | neutral | 2026-10-19 | AI credit domino risk (cloud/compute bonds, circular financing); US yields at 20-yr high as crash precursor; SPCX sell-into-strength, Nov lockup; BTC/ETH at key level (neutral). |
| Ringo 短炒波士 | — | neutral | — | — | 2026-10-20 | HSI range 24,000 support / 25,000 resistance; took profit pre-CPI; would long near 24,000; US dip-buy watch; HSI broke 24,000 on 10-20. |
| Martin Luk | — | — | — | — | 2026-10-22 | Rarely gives explicit opinions — default neutral. SPECIAL WATCH: if he shorts an index, flag and overweight that signal. Covered with Ringo in weekly digest; no index-short alert as of this asof. |
| 小金人 Oscar (金人金語) | bearish | bearish | — | — | 2026-10-04 needs update | Global sovereign yield surge is the 3-6m main theme; most assets overpriced; AI still OK; HK/banks weak. |
| ★ Sky Sir 張士佳 (Sky財經天地) | neutral | bearish | — | — | 2026-10-22 | US neutral: trimmed at NQ high, ~9% index position left, didn't call exit; sees CDS-driven shakeout before further rise, waits for buy-back signal. HK cautious/short bias: 10-22 short reiterates path from 26k→24k toward 22,xxx (~1k+ more downside), '淨係揸股蝕同主動出擊係兩個級嘅市'. |
| Uncle Stock Notes 大叔美股筆記 | bullish | — | — | — | 2026-10-22 | 261021 notes: '今天美股算安全'; AI buildout intact (SpaceX power buys GEV/ETN; ABF/packaging to 2027; HBM/memory tight thru 2027Q1). Bought some ARM on dip (edge AI w/ QCOM); likes ASX <35 / AMKR wait; SPCX earnings solid but wait for dip. Nvidia capacity prepay = don't chase on news—check valuation. Prefers MRVL/AVGO/LITE/NBIS theme still. |
| ★ 陳刀仔 DataLouder 數說財經 | bearish | — | — | — | 2026-10-22 | US risk signal triggered 10-13 and 10-19; fund flows poor for a month. New 10-22 video '比特幣 美股 可能是最後上車時間？' (captions disabled — stance not re-scored from title alone). Medium-term constructive: midterm backtest says pre-election low then ~+15% median 12m. |
| ★ Eric 投機先要溫功課 | neutral | bearish | — | — | 2026-10-22 | Back from late-Oct holiday. 10-22 live title: '港股全年高位已見' + calculate downside + '比你的師傅更懂離場' — HK still bearish/exit-aware (prior: downtrend intact, banks weak, support ~22,500). US prior neutral/OK (SPX breakout; avoid AI upstream, likes cybersecurity) unchanged pending finished transcript. |
| 孫子大戶 | bearish | bearish | — | — | 2026-10-21 | Recent lives/Threads: AI credit risk (CoreWeave CDS/ORCL/NBIS financing chain) flagged as bigger danger than price; HSI 24400/23600 key;北水 flow flipped after 7w inflow; capital-preservation framing (今次先守本金 / 港股AI硬件未止血). US tech/NQ watch, not chase. |
| 莊主 劉偉強 (Logic 投資山莊) | — | — | — | — | 2026-10-22 | Registry added 2026-10-22. Latest public hits are stock/sector columns (e.g. Alibaba AI spend vs cash flow) without a clear dated index-level US/HK regime call in free sources checked today. Pending next Logic 投資山莊 / am730 market piece. |
| 艾文（我要炒期貨） | bearish | bearish | — | — | 2026-10-20 | MTTV/MoneyTab「我要炒期貨」10-20: HSI broke 24,000 called 極關鍵; Nasdaq finally pulling back after highs; episode framed around scenarios + trading psychology (「應該」trap), not a dip-buy call. |
| Mila Yuen | bearish | — | — | — | 2026-10-05 needs update | YT 10-04/10-05: US 10y through ~5.6% and long-bond debasement framing; stresses cash/patience, avoid chase. Older Apr 「維穩」bull narrative superseded by Oct yield/debt focus for stance. |
| Alex Mok 美股策略研究（莫家強） | — | — | — | — | 2026-10-22 | Registry added 2026-10-22 (high-weight). Placeholder — no fresh free/public regime stance scraped today. User context: first voice they saw correctly calling US bull market; overweight future bull-bear/regime calls. Sources: FB「Alex Mok 美股策略研究」, Patreon aminvest (free titles only), IG alexmokinvest. No confirmed YT. |
| Bubble Dragon | — | bearish | — | — | 2026-10-22 | 10-22 live '你...最近還好嗎...' (no captions yet). Prior 10-21: cut ~HK$10M of ~14M, can't find buys; AI concerns unresolved; HK very hard; only short-term trades; keeps dividend stocks. Stance held bearish. |
| Calvin Tsai | — | — | — | — | 2026-10-05 needs update | Latest X post is non-market (health). No current crypto view. |
| James & Dennis (Aireturn) | neutral | — | — | — | 2026-10-21 | 經濟前James 10-21: not a 2007-Oct style top/bear start — AI underlying demand (GPU/HBM/compute) still rising, no A1 'debt bomb' coverage, SOFR−IORB still negative, credit spreads not spiking; expects choppy grind higher, limited rebound momentum (few shorts), real-yield-driven revaluation. TSLA/SpaceX merger = strong catalyst. Watch CoreWeave/Oracle bond yields (9%→15-16%), HY spreads. |
Core-four (US/overall) status: triggered (3/4).
HK core status (excl Ah Ju): triggered (2/3).
Rules
GREEN LIGHT condition: if more than half of filled US stances (weighted; stale ones count 50%) are bullish/very bullish, AND risk score ≤2, AND SPX > 50d, AND ≥50% of S&P 500 > 50d → may press harder, still within the band's risk limits (cf. Apr 2026). The followed traders agreeing feeds only this flag.
CROWDED condition: outside/public sentiment is euphoric (at least 2 of 3: CNN Fear & Greed ≥75 extreme greed, AAII bull−bear ≥+20pp, CBOE equity put/call 5d avg ≤0.50; now 0/3), AND SPX ≥5% above 50d (now +0.7%), AND breadth is fading (%>50d down >5pp in 10d or A/D line below its 50d; now no) → don't chase, tighten stops. Trader stances are NOT used.
Core-four override (US/overall): if ≥3/4 of ★ Ah Ju + Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric are bearish or very bearish → STRONG WARNING (≥ Yellow).
HK core override: Ah Ju has no HK view — if ≥2/3 of ★ Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric are HK bearish/very bearish → STRONG WARNING for HK (≥ Yellow).
Overall stance: per market, weighted average of filled stances on −2..+2 (very bearish −2 … very bullish +2); a stance older than 10 days is marked needs update and gets 50% weight: ≥+1.5 very bullish, ≥+0.5 bullish, >−0.5 neutral, >−1.5 bearish, else very bearish. The US score and GREEN LIGHT use US stances only, so an HK-bearish view does not lower the US score. Blank = trader gave no view for that market.