Market Pulse 2026-10-23

Cross-check — US

ALIGNED YELLOW — caution (all 4) (4 gauges: Liquidity / Momentum / Trader consensus / Sentiment; strong when ≥3/4 same direction or all 4; thresholds err cautious) · Exit-door headline:

Liquidity

stress pts 2 (3/3 inputs)

SOFR−IORB -2bp (0)
SRF/repo 0.0bn (1)
HY OAS 327bp, +67 vs 60d low (1)

Momentum

10/12 bullish checks

GSPC >20/50/200d ✓✓✓ · 3m +4.7% · 6m +8.7%
NDX >20/50/200d ✗✗✓ · 3m +4.8% · 6m +10.7%
%>50d 56% · NH−NL +23

Trader consensus

US weighted avg -0.48 on −2..+2 (11 traders; core↑)

bearish share 64% of stated stances
stale(50%) 2
XC weights: Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5

Sentiment

neither extreme (0/3 hot)

CNN F&G 18 (extreme fear) · cool <35
AAII bull−bear -8.9pp
CBOE equity P/C 5d avg 0.58
euphoria check off (0/3 components)

US Liquidity: SOFR−IORB / SRF / HY OAS stress pts; 0–1 green, 2–3 yellow, 4+ red; missing ≠ stress. US Momentum: SPX+NDX ≥90% bullish checks for green; NDX short-MA fail or SPX/NDX diverge caps green→yellow. US Trader consensus (XC weights Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5 on markets.US): ≥+0.5 green, −1.080%→red. Exit-door score is separate.

Exit-door risk score

0/10

Correction Watch: off (fast 0≥3) Bear Watch: off (fast≥3 & slow 0≥2)

Normal — full exposure per system. Price inputs as of 2026-10-21

#	Warning	Type	Pts	Detail
W1	Funding stress	slow	0/1	SOFR−IORB last3 -3, -2, -2bp; repo 0.0bn
W1b	SOFR > IORB ≥3 consecutive days (user rule)	slow	0/1	current run above 0: 0 day(s)
W2	Credit spreads widening	slow	0/2	HY 327bp vs 60d low 260bp, 20d high 333bp
W3	Breadth divergence	fast	0/1	SPX -0.8% vs 52wH; %>50d 56%; A/D line > 50d
W4	New lows rising	fast	0/1	NH/NL last3: 11/3, 25/1, 26/3
W5	Leaders breaking	fast	0/1	top-20 below 50d 10%; strong-idx 18.4% vs 20d high 18.4%
W6	Fed hawkish (partial)	slow	0/1	2y 4.79% Δ1m +3bp · FedWatch-style odds shown separately (info only, not scored)
W7a	SPX < 50d	fast	0/1	SPX 7,757 vs 50d 7,705
W7b	SPX < 200d & 200d falling	slow	0/1	200d 7,284, 1m slope +1.22%
W8	Volatility regime	fast	0/1	VIX 16.7 / VIX3M 18.7

Exit-door history

2026-05-01 → 2026-10-21 · dashed: yellow ≥3, red ≥6 · shaded = reconstructed backfill

First warning: none — currently GREEN · last non-green day 2026-10-16

Backfill reconstructed from cached daily series; W5 (leaders) not reconstructable — omitted from backfill.

Draft weights from spec §10, not yet validated. W6 = 2y Δ1m only; fed-funds-futures odds are shown as info and not scored.

Liquidity & rates

SOFR − IORB

-2 bp

as of 2026-10-21

SOFR 3.88% / IORB 3.90%; >0 = funding tight

ON RRP usage

0.351 $bn

as of 2026-10-22

FRED RRPONTSYD

Repo ops (incl. SRF)

0.001 $bn

as of 2026-10-22

FRED RPONTSYD; sustained >0 = stress

TGA (daily DTS)

$974bn

as of 2026-10-20

Treasury FiscalData DTS; 20d Δ -31bn

10y yield (live ^TNX)

5.15%

as of 2026-10-21

Yahoo ^TNX close

10y (FRED DGS10)

5.12%

as of 2026-10-20

official, 1–2d lag

10y real (TIPS)

2.77%

as of 2026-10-20

20d Δ +15bp · FRED DFII10 · cross-check TIP ETF 20d +0.7% (DISAGREES: TIP falls when real yields rise)

10y breakeven (nominal − real)

2.35%

as of 2026-10-20

derived: 5.12% − 2.77% · 20d Δ +1bp

DXY

101.78

as of 2026-10-21

20d +0.7% · Yahoo DX-Y.NYB

HY OAS

327 bp

as of 2026-10-21

60d low 260bp

HY credit PROXY (HYG/IEF)

0.8532 widening

as of 2026-10-21

PROXY for HY spread (ratio falls when credit spreads widen). 20d -1.38% · -1.66% vs 60d high · widening flag at ≤−1.5% · info only, not scored in W2

HY credit PROXY (HYG/LQD)

0.7459

as of 2026-10-21

PROXY for HY spread (ratio falls when credit spreads widen). 20d -0.77% · -1.42% vs 60d high · widening flag at ≤−1.5% · info only, not scored in W2

Net liquidity (WALCL−TGA−RRP)

$5,782bn

as of 2026-10-14

derived; WALCL weekly (as-of = WALCL date)

SOFR − IORB spread, 12 months (bp)

Today: -2 bp · 5-day avg -2.0 bp · days >0 in 12m: 90 as of 2026-10-21

FRED SOFR − IORB, daily. Red shading + red dots = spread > 0 (SOFR above IORB, funding tight). Dashed grey = month-ends; orange = quarter-ends (QE).

Sentiment — Fear & Greed

EXTREME FEAR
CNN Fear & Greed
prev close 31 · 1w 30 · 1m 35

as of 2026-10-23 03:37 HKT

Public sentiment — euphoria check

AAII bull − bear spread

-8.9 pp

as of 2026-10-22

bull 36.9% · neutral 17.3% · bear 45.8% · percentile since 1987: 21 · weekly survey (Thu) · aaii.com sentiment.xls

Equity put/call (CBOE)

0.52

as of 2026-10-21

5d avg 0.58 · total P/C 0.87 · CBOE daily market statistics · CNN put/call component: 18 (extreme fear) — independent read

Euphoria = at least 2 of 3 available: CNN F&G 18 (euphoric if ≥75); AAII bull−bear -8.9pp (euphoric if ≥+20pp); equity P/C 5d avg 0.58 (euphoric if ≤0.50). Now: 0/3 → not euphoric. Feeds the CROWDED flag (not the exit-door score).

VIX / VIX3M term structure

0.891

not inverted
VIX 16.68 / VIX3M 18.72 · 20d max 0.975

as of 2026-10-21

Fast indicator, info only (W8 already counts VIX > VIX3M; weights unchanged). Yahoo ^VIX/^VIX3M · cross-check CBOE official 10-21: VIX 16.68 / VIX3M 18.72 = 0.891 vs Yahoo 0.891 (match).

Fed funds futures — FedWatch-style odds (derived estimate)

FOMC	Pre	Post	Δ bp	Implied odds of 25bp move	Cum. vs EFFR bp	Method
2026-10-28	3.880%	3.900%	+2.0	hike ≈8%	+2	next-month contract ZQX26.CBT
2026-12-09	3.900%	4.097%	+19.7	hike ≈79%	+22	meeting-month contract ZQZ26.CBT
2027-01-27	4.097%	4.170%	+7.3	hike ≈29%	+29	next-month contract ZQG27.CBT

DERIVED ESTIMATE, not CME FedWatch (CME blocks scripts). Start = EFFR 3.88% (NY Fed, 2026-10-21). Implied rate = 100 − ZQ settle (Yahoo, CBOT 30-day fed funds). CME-style month-average method; odds = |Δ| ÷ 25bp. Contracts: ZQV26.CBT 96.118 → 3.882% (10-22) · ZQX26.CBT 96.100 → 3.900% (10-22) · ZQZ26.CBT 95.960 → 4.040% (10-22) · ZQF27.CBT 95.900 → 4.100% (10-22) · ZQG27.CBT 95.830 → 4.170% (10-22) · ZQH27.CBT 95.765 → 4.235% (10-22)

US breadth — S&P 500

as of 2026-10-21 universe 503 current constituents (Wikipedia) — survivorship caveat

% > 20d

74%

% > 50d

56%

% > 200d

56%

Adv / Dec

281 / 221

52w New Highs

52w New Lows

% above 50d (120d)

Cumulative A/D line (250d)

Breadth divergence: not flagged SPX -0.8% vs 52w high (near = within 2%: yes) · % > 50d 56% vs 20-session peak 56% (drop 0 pts; flag at >10-pt drop). Info only.

New highs, cap ≥ $2B (26), sorted by RS: MRNA, VEEV, CRL, ZBRA, CNC, HAS, APA, FDS, A, ADP, MTD, WAT, CAH, COP, V, TMO, WST, ELV, CVX, MA, MET, TRV, CTAS, HLT, CDW, BRK-B

NH/NL = intraday high/low at 252d extreme. Cap from Nasdaq screener; 0 new-high names lacked cap data and are excluded from named list.

Strong-stock index

as of 2026-10-21

18.4%

of S&P 500 is "strong" (RS pct ≥80 & > 50d). RS = 0.4·RS1m + 0.3·RS3m + 0.3·RS6m, RSn = stock ret / SPX ret − 1. 20d high 18.4%

Top 20

#	Ticker	Sector	Cap	RS pct	RS1m	RS3m	RS6m	vs 52wH	>50d
1	MRNA Moderna	Health Care	$98B	99	+35%	+312%	+307%	-3.4%	✓
2	VEEV Veeva Systems	Health Care	$52B	99	+23%	+70%	+80%	-0.8%	✓
3	MPC Marathon Petroleum	Energy	$131B	99	+20%	+44%	+95%	-5.3%	✓
4	P Everpure	Information Technology	$44B	98	+18%	+66%	+74%	-16.9%	✓
5	ILMN Illumina, Inc.	Health Care	$43B	98	+14%	+37%	+99%	-8.6%	✓
6	CRL Charles River Laboratories	Health Care	$16B	98	+21%	+44%	+72%	-1.2%	✓
7	PTC PTC Inc.	Information Technology	$21B	98	+39%	+64%	+27%	-6.0%	✓
8	VLO Valero Energy	Energy	$126B	98	+16%	+37%	+73%	-5.4%	✓
9	ACN Accenture	Information Technology	$161B	97	+32%	+67%	+19%	-15.1%	✓
10	NTAP NetApp	Information Technology	$43B	97	+13%	+26%	+81%	-9.8%	✓
11	PSX Phillips 66	Energy	$116B	97	+13%	+35%	+68%	-3.1%	✓
12	IT Gartner	Information Technology	$14B	97	+23%	+57%	+29%	-15.9%	✓
13	ZBRA Zebra Technologies	Information Technology	$18B	97	+8%	+45%	+56%	-0.5%	✓
14	NOW ServiceNow	Information Technology	$158B	96	+12%	+59%	+37%	-20.6%	✓
15	DDOG Datadog	Information Technology	$98B	96	+10%	+7%	+90%	-9.2%	✓
16	WDAY Workday, Inc.	Information Technology	$49B	96	+8%	+52%	+48%	-18.0%	✓
17	CRWD CrowdStrike	Information Technology	$245B	96	-4%	+25%	+89%	-16.6%	✓
18	HUM Humana	Health Care	$51B	96	+14%	+3%	+80%	-6.8%	✓
19	DELL Dell Technologies	Information Technology	$309B	95	-11%	+6%	+109%	-18.3%	✗
20	HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise	Information Technology	$77B	95	-5%	+17%	+89%	-20.9%	✗

Sectors

Sector	N	Avg RS pct	Δ1w	% strong	Δ1w pp	% >50d
Health Care	60.0	71	+0.9	43%	+0	78%
Energy	21.0	67	+0.3	38%	+5	81%
Information Technology	75.0	58	-10.6	32%	-3	56%
Consumer Staples	33.0	58	+1.8	15%	+3	73%
Financials	76.0	50	+7.7	11%	+5	45%
Materials	24.0	46	+2.6	8%	+0	67%
Consumer Discretionary	47.0	43	+4.3	21%	+13	49%
Industrials	81.0	40	-2.5	9%	+0	49%
Utilities	31.0	36	-2.0	0%	+0	68%
Communication Services	22.0	36	+2.3	5%	+0	36%
Real Estate	30.0	33	+1.1	3%	+3	20%

Calendar

Date (US)	In	Event	Source
2026-10-28	5d	FOMC decision	October 27-28 (federalreserve.gov); statement 14:00 ET
2026-11-11	19d	CPI	Core CPI (Nasdaq econ calendar)
2026-12-09	47d	FOMC decision	December 8-9* (federalreserve.gov); statement 14:00 ET
—	d	NFP	MISSING — not found in Nasdaq econ calendar next 45d (BLS site blocks bots)

Key earnings, next 2 weeks (≥$200B cap, mega-caps, or RS top-20)

Date (US)	Sym	Name	When	Cap	EPS est
2026-10-23	AXP	American Express Company	BMO	$219B	$4.47
2026-10-27	HSBC	HSBC Holdings plc	n/a	$318B	$2.13
2026-10-27	KO	Coca-Cola Company (The)	BMO	$399B	$0.87
2026-10-27	NVS	Novartis AG	BMO	$294B	$2.25
2026-10-27	V	Visa Inc.	AMC	$729B	$3.43
2026-10-28	GEV	GE Vernova Inc.	BMO	$247B	$4.03
2026-10-28	GOOG	Alphabet Inc.	AMC	$4094B	$2.94
2026-10-28	GOOGL	Alphabet Inc.	AMC	$4094B	$2.94
2026-10-28	KLAC	KLA Corporation	AMC	$213B	$1.18
2026-10-28	MSFT	Microsoft Corporation	AMC	$3957B	$4.71
2026-10-28	NOW	ServiceNow, Inc.	AMC	$158B	$0.56
2026-10-28	PSX	Phillips 66	BMO	$116B	$12.02
2026-10-29	AMZN	Amazon.com, Inc.	AMC	$2830B	$2.01
2026-10-29	CAT	Caterpillar, Inc.	BMO	$340B	$7.12
2026-10-29	ILMN	Illumina, Inc.	AMC	$43B	$1.38
2026-10-29	INTC	Intel Corporation	AMC	$491B	$0.28
2026-10-29	LIN	Linde plc	BMO	$231B	$4.52
2026-10-29	LLY	Eli Lilly and Company	BMO	$1196B	$5.38
2026-10-29	MA	Mastercard Incorporated	BMO	$545B	$5.14
2026-10-29	MRK	Merck & Company, Inc.	BMO	$370B	$2.12
2026-10-29	SHEL	Shell PLC	BMO	$289B	$3.25
2026-10-29	SNDK	Sandisk Corporation	AMC	$200B	$45.22
2026-10-30	ABBV	AbbVie Inc.	BMO	$503B	$3.76
2026-10-30	AZN	AstraZeneca PLC	BMO	$262B	$2.16
2026-10-30	CVX	Chevron Corporation	BMO	$448B	$4.78
2026-10-30	XOM	ExxonMobil Holdings Corporatio	BMO	$732B	$3.96
2026-11-02	AAPL	Apple Inc.	AMC	$5020B	$2
2026-11-02	PLTR	Palantir Technologies Inc.	AMC	$485B	$0.34
2026-11-03	AMD	Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.	AMC	$902B	$1.68
2026-11-03	AMGN	Amgen Inc.	AMC	$237B	$5.72
2026-11-03	ANET	Arista Networks, Inc.	AMC	$232B	$0.99
2026-11-03	IT	Gartner, Inc.	BMO	$14B	$2.86
2026-11-03	MPC	Marathon Petroleum Corporation	BMO	$131B	$25.63
2026-11-03	SHOP	Shopify Inc.	BMO	$226B	$0.33
2026-11-03	ZBRA	Zebra Technologies Corporation	BMO	$18B	$4.21
2026-11-04	ARM	Arm Holdings plc	AMC	$241B	$0.22
2026-11-04	CRL	Charles River Laboratories Int	BMO	$16B	$2.98
2026-11-04	DDOG	Datadog, Inc.	BMO	$98B	$0.18
2026-11-04	PTC	PTC Inc.	AMC	$21B	$1.59
2026-11-04	TM	Toyota Motor Corp Ltd Ord	n/a	$254B
2026-11-06	BRK.A	Berkshire Hathaway Inc.	n/a	$1165B
2026-11-06	BRK.B	Berkshire Hathaway Inc.	n/a	$1165B	$5.91
2026-11-06	HUM	Humana Inc.	BMO	$51B	($1.03)
2026-11-06	MRNA	Moderna, Inc.	BMO	$98B	($1.10)

Source: Nasdaq earnings calendar (unofficial API), pulled 2026-10-23 03:42 HKT. BMO/AMC are US Eastern sessions; AMC lands ~04:00–05:00 HKT next day. Rows within 48h highlighted.

Gold / Bitcoin strength

Gold (GC=F futures)

4,044.8 WEAK

as of 2026-10-22 19:33 HKT

live · Yahoo GC=F

1w +1.0% · 1m -5.3% · 3m -0.0%

vs 50d 4,358.3: -7.2% · vs 200d 4,537.4: -10.9% · 200d falling · score 0/5

BTC

81,232.0 NEUTRAL

as of 2026-10-22 19:16 HKT

live · NetDania BTCUSD

1w +3.0% · 1m -3.0% · 3m +27.1%

vs 50d 81,702.1: -0.6% · vs 200d 72,733.9: +11.7% · 200d rising · score 3/5

Gold vs BTC, 1 month: -2.4% (BTC stronger)

Strength only — not a trade signal. Score = 1 point each for: price > 50d avg, price > 200d avg, 200d avg rising (vs 20 bars ago), 1m change > 0, 3m change > 0. 4–5 = STRONG, 2–3 = NEUTRAL, 0–1 = WEAK. Changes are calendar 7/30/91 days; averages are 50/200 daily bars (BTC trades 7 days a week). Live price/as-of: freshest+reliable of Yahoo (GC=F / BTC) and NetDania (XAUUSD cash / BTC) — instrument-matched Yahoo preferred when timestamps are close. Strength history + sparkline: Yahoo daily bars.

Oil strength

WTI oil (CL=F futures)

99.32 STRONG

as of 2026-10-22 19:33 HKT

live · Yahoo CL=F

1w +2.2% · 1m +1.4% · 3m +11.9%

vs 50d 92.16: +7.8% · vs 200d 84.84: +17.1% · 200d rising · score 5/5

Brent oil (BZ=F futures)

113.14 STRONG

as of 2026-10-22 19:32 HKT

live · Yahoo BZ=F

1w +2.6% · 1m +8.5% · 3m +15.7%

vs 50d 99.75: +13.4% · vs 200d 90.63: +24.8% · 200d rising · score 5/5

WTI vs Brent, 1 month: -6.5% (Brent stronger)

WTI−Brent spread: -13.82 (live levels)

WTI vs Gold, 1 month: +7.1% (oil stronger)

WTI vs BTC, 1 month: +4.6% (oil stronger)

DXY 1m +1.3% · WTI 1m +1.4% (USD↑ often weighs on oil; info only)

Strength only — same 5-point rules as gold/BTC (not a trade signal). WTI = Yahoo CL=F futures; Brent = Yahoo BZ=F (live may prefer NetDania UKOIL cash when fresher). First-cut relatives: WTI−Brent spread + 1m WTI vs Brent / Gold / BTC, plus DXY 1m context. Not yet wired: EIA inventory, crack spreads (RB/HO−CL), OPEC events. TradingView: TVC:USOIL (WTI) · TVC:UKOIL (Brent) · COMEX:HG1! (Copper) — see Cmdty/Crypto tab.

Capital-flow rotation

Leader: BTC

Rk	Ticker	1m	3m	6m	Vol20	Score	>200d	As of
1	BTC	+0.5%	+21.3%	+30.4%	21%	0.81	✓	2026-10-21
2	SPY	-0.0%	+5.0%	+9.3%	9%	0.54	✓	2026-10-21
3	BIL	+0.3%	+0.9%	+1.8%	0%	0.51	✓	2026-10-21
4	EWT	-5.3%	+9.2%	+26.5%	24%	0.43	✓	2026-10-21
5	DIA	+1.9%	+2.6%	+7.4%	9%	0.42	✓	2026-10-21
6	QQQ	-3.0%	+4.9%	+10.9%	16%	0.27	✓	2026-10-21
7	EWJ	-3.1%	+5.1%	+9.7%	15%	0.26	✓	2026-10-21
8	EWH	-3.6%	-1.9%	-4.8%	17%	-0.20	✗	2026-10-21
9	EWY	-18.6%	-9.8%	+0.7%	41%	-0.23	✗	2026-10-21
10	GLD	-5.3%	+2.0%	-12.9%	20%	-0.27	✗	2026-10-21
11	TLT	-1.5%	-2.4%	-5.3%	10%	-0.29	✗	2026-10-21

Universe: SPY (US), DIA (Dow), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), EWH (HK), TLT (US bonds), EWT (Taiwan), EWY (Korea), EWJ (Japan), GLD, BTC, BIL (cash). Score = mean(1/3/6m ret) ÷ 20d ann. vol. Leader must be > 200d and beat BIL 6m (dual momentum), else CASH. BTC as of its last daily bar (UTC). Tap/hover ticker for full name.

Cross-check — HK

ALIGNED RED — strong warning (3/4 gauges) (4 gauges: Liquidity / Momentum / Trader consensus / Sentiment; strong when ≥3/4 same direction or all 4; thresholds err cautious)

Liquidity

stress pts 3 (3 inputs)

HIBOR ON vs 20d avg +5bp (1)
HIBOR 1M vs 20d avg -10bp (0)
Aggregate Balance vs 20d avg -109 mn (1)
classic tight: Balance ↓ + HIBOR ↑ (+1)

Momentum

0/11 bullish checks

HSI >20/50/200d ✗✗✗ · 3m -5.0% · 6m -10.3%
HSTECH >20/50/200d ✗✗✗ · 3m -19.3% · 6m -25.0%
%>50d 11%

Trader consensus

HK weighted avg -0.88 on −2..+2 (7 traders; core↑)

bearish share 86% of stated stances > 80% → RED
stale(50%) 1
HK core ≥2/3 bearish (excl Ah Ju)
XC weights: Sky Sir×2, ★ core/Eric×1.5

Sentiment

bulls re-added on drop (Eric)

Eric CBBC state READD · light RED
bull CBBC d/d +261%
near-money bull share 100.0%

HK Liquidity: HIBOR vs 20d avg + Aggregate Balance vs 20d avg (+1 if classic Balance↓+HIBOR↑); same green/yellow/red pts bands; missing ≠ stress; not SOFR−IORB. HK Momentum: HSI+HSTECH (same MA/return checks) + HSI constituent %>50d when available. HK Trader consensus: same XC weights on HK stances (quorum ≥3). Separate from US Cross-check.

Exit-door risk score — HK

8/10

HK stress — cut HK exposure / hedge.

#	Warning	Pts	Detail
1	HIBOR stress	0	O/N >25bp above 20d avg · neutral
2	Aggregate Balance stress	0	>3% below 20d avg · neutral
3	USD/HKD weak side	0	≥7.84 · neutral
4	Southbound outflow	1	5-session net <0 · tight
5	HSI breadth >50d weak	1	<40% above 50d · 11%
6	HSI breadth >200d weak	1	<40% above 200d · 29%
7	VHSI high / spike	0	≥25 or +15% day · 22.1
8	HSI below 50d	1	22,935 vs 24,904 (-7.9%); 50d 1w slope -0.70%
9	HSI below 200d	1	22,935 vs 25,453 (-9.9%); 200d 1w slope -0.17%
10	HSTECH below 50d	1	3,794 vs 4,393 (-13.6%); 50d 1w slope -1.94%; MA hist Tencent
11	HSTECH below 200d	1	3,794 vs 4,871 (-22.1%); 200d 1w slope -0.76%
12	New lows rising	1	HSI∪HSTECH NH/NL last3: 0/6, 0/6, 0/19

Exit-door history

2026-05-04 → 2026-10-23 · dashed: yellow ≥3, red ≥6 · shaded = reconstructed backfill

First warning: 2026-08-24 (60 days ago) · First red: 2026-09-02 (51 days ago) · Triggered first: HSI below 200d, HSTECH below 50d, HSTECH below 200d

Backfill reconstructed from cached daily series; VHSI has no free history (live days only); HIBOR / Aggregate Balance / Southbound history is short, so early backfill days score those as not fired.

1 point each (12 inputs), capped at 10. GREEN 0–2 · YELLOW 3–5 · RED 6+ (same bands as US). Excludes CBBC retail sentiment and trader stances (shown separately). Draft weights, not validated.

HK Liquidity

HK liquidity mixed
HIBOR: neutral · Aggregate Balance: neutral · USD/HKD: neutral · Southbound: tight

HIBOR overnight

2.623% Δ1d +28 bp

as of 2026-10-22

Δ1w +21 bp · vs 20d avg +5 bp (avg 2.575%)

HIBOR 1M

2.745% Δ1d +7 bp

as of 2026-10-22

Δ1w -0 bp · vs 20d avg -10 bp (avg 2.844%)

Aggregate Balance

HK$54,125 mn Δ1d -27 mn

as of 2026-10-21 · STALE

vs 20d avg -109 mn (avg HK$54,234 mn) · vs 1w ago +14 mn · vs 1m ago +150 mn

USD/HKD band

7.8379 88% toward 7.85

as of 2026-10-22

7.75 strong side = inflow · 7.85 weak side = outflow / tight

Southbound

-9.22 HK$bn

as of 2026-10-22

5-session net -24.0 HK$bn · HKEX

Read: Aggregate Balance ↓ + HIBOR ↑ → classic HKD system tight.

Lamp rule: count tight signals — HIBOR O/N >25bp above 20d avg; Aggregate Balance >3% below 20d avg; USD/HKD ≥7.84 (weak side); Southbound 5-session net <0. ≥2 tight = RED; 1 tight or <2 loose = YELLOW; else GREEN.

Sources: HIBOR — HKAB HKD Interest Settlement Rates (free JSON). Aggregate Balance — HKMA Daily Monetary Statistics Closing Aggregate Balance, hkma.gov.hk (MS HTML; official API often blocked from this host). Units: HIBOR % p.a.; balance HK$ million. HIBOR up ≠ equity turnover. Never invent numbers — missing series show cream/stale badge.

HK Sentiment

HK retail (CBBC)

+261%

Bulls re-added on drop
Retail not capitulated, hope not dead — not a buy reason.
Eric rule: falling day, bulls 殺完又加

as of 2026-10-22 23:05 HKT

Bull CBBC d/d

2,127 → 7,680 (+261%)

HSI day -3.03%

Bear CBBC d/d

5,026 → 2,643 (-47%)

Citi fut-eq

Heavy bull zone

22,800–22,899 (1,274 fut-eq · -85 pt vs HSI)

Heavy bear zone

25,400–25,499 (395 fut-eq · +2,515 pt vs HSI)

Context: near-money / all-market bull share

100.0% / 58.4%

context only — not the light driver

6-day comparison

Date	HSI	Bull / bear (fut-eq)	Bull d/d	Re-add
10-22	-3.03%	7,680 2,643	+261%	●
10-21	-0.90%	2,127 5,026	+10%
10-20	-1.32%	1,934 4,975	+10%
10-16	+0.52%	1,765 5,650	-5%	n/a
10-15	-1.03%	1,852 5,140	+6%
10-14	-0.13%	1,744 6,172	—	n/a

Bulls re-added on drop fired today only (no streak)

Re-add days in window: 1/5

HSI ref 22,934.68 · ±15% cutoff (Alex). Eric method: CBBC street goods = retail sentiment, not smart money; can't move price. Not US CROWDED. Citi HSI CBBC · Citi citiwarrants.com HSI CBBC ±1000pt · as-of 2026-10-22, 23:05 HKT.

HK warrant / options put-call

1.22

as of 2026-10-21 00:00 HKT · STALE

5d avg 0.99 · put 472,313 / call 386,707 · HKEX SORC put/call (All underlyings)

Primary retail-sentiment input: Citi HSI CBBC outstanding, read with Eric's method (not the old ≥70% near-bull light). Separate from US Fear & Greed / AAII / CBOE.

HK Volatility

22.08

HK vol elevated
Δ1d +11.57% · Investing.com hsi-volatility

as of 2026-10-23 03:42 HKT

History building — saved daily to cache/vhsi_history.json

Lamp: GREEN <20 · YELLOW 20–30 or +10% day · RED ≥30 or +20% day (practical bands, not a trader rule). No free TradingView widget symbol for VHSI found — chart not embedded.

Fed slot (HK equivalent): HKMA Base Rate is set by formula — US fed funds target upper bound + 50bp (or 5d avg of O/N+1M HIBOR if higher). No separate HK policy-odds feed; see US Fed card.

HK Breadth

HSI constituents (85): 11% > 50d · 29% > 200d · A/D 1/84 as of 2026-10-22

Group	N	% >50d	% >200d	52w NH / NL	NH/NL last3
HSI	85	11%	29%	0 / 14	0/3, 0/5, 0/14
HSTECH	30	3%	7%	0 / 10	0/5, 0/4, 0/10
HSI ∪ HSTECH (deduped)	96	9%	27%	0 / 19	0/6, 0/6, 0/19

HK market-wide A/D (SL886 unofficial)

539 adv / 1,450 dec · A/D ratio 0.37 · 52w NH/NL 25/332

as of 2026-10-22 20:59 HKT

UNOFFICIAL — third-party SL886, not HKEX official

% of HSI constituents above 50d / 200d MA from Yahoo .HK daily closes; A/D = HSI constituents up vs down on the day. NH/NL = intraday high/low at 252d extreme (same as US). HSTECH list from AAStocks; combined row dedupes overlap. Market-wide A/D block is unofficial SL886 third-party data (not HKEX).

HK Calendar

Date (HK)	Type	Event	Source
Fri 10-23	Hong Kong	CPI	Nasdaq econ calendar
Fri 10-23	Hong Kong	CPI	Nasdaq econ calendar
Fri 10-23	Earnings	1099 Sinopharm — Quarter results · 3 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-23	Earnings	2899 Zijin — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Mon 10-26	Earnings	2359 Wuxi AppTec — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27	China	Chinese Industrial profit YTD	Nasdaq econ calendar
Tue 10-27	Earnings	0522 ASMPT — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27	Earnings	0270 Guangdong Inv — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27	Earnings	0005 HSBC — 3rd quarter results / interim dividend · Third quarter 2026	HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27	Earnings	0288 WH Group — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Tue 10-27	Earnings (US ADR)	HSBC HSBC Holdings plc — n/a US time	Nasdaq earnings
Wed 10-28	Earnings	1876 Budweiser APAC — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28	Earnings	0688 COLI — Results · Third quarter 2026	HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28	Earnings	0857 PetroChina — Results · 3 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28	Earnings	2318 Ping An — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Wed 10-28	Earnings (US ADR)	EDU New Oriental Education & Technology Group, Inc. — BMO US time	Nasdaq earnings
Thu 10-29	HSI futures/options expiry	Oct contract — rule-derived (second-last HK business day); confirm on HKEX	rule
Thu 10-29	Hong Kong	Exports	Nasdaq econ calendar
Thu 10-29	Hong Kong	Imports	Nasdaq econ calendar
Thu 10-29	Hong Kong	Trade Balance	Nasdaq econ calendar
Thu 10-29	Earnings	1211 BYD — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29	Earnings	0762 China Unicom — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29	Earnings	0175 Geely — Quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29	Earnings	6690 Haier — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29	Earnings	0300 Midea — 3rd quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29	Earnings	0386 Sinopec — 3rd quarter results	HKEX BMN
Thu 10-29	Earnings (US ADR)	TAL TAL Education Group — BMO US time	Nasdaq earnings
Fri 10-30	Earnings	3988 Bank of China — Results · quarter ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	3328 BankComm — Quarter results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	2388 BOC Hong Kong — 3rd quarter results / interim dividend · Third quarter 2026	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	0939 CCB — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	2628 China Life — Results · quarter ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	3968 CM Bank — 3rd quarter results · period ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	0883 CNOOC — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	2333 Great Wall — 3rd quarter results · 3 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Fri 10-30	Earnings	1398 ICBC — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN
Mon 11-02	China	RatingDog Manufacturing PMI	Nasdaq econ calendar
Tue 11-03	Earnings (US ADR)	YUMC Yum China Holdings, Inc. — BMO US time	Nasdaq earnings
Wed 11-04	Hong Kong	GDP	Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04	Hong Kong	GDP	Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04	Hong Kong	Retail Sales	Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04	Hong Kong	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04	China	RatingDog Services PMI	Nasdaq econ calendar
Wed 11-04	Earnings (US ADR)	ATHM Autohome Inc. — BMO US time	Nasdaq earnings
Fri 11-06	Earnings	0388 HKEX — Results · 9 months ended 30/09/26	HKEX BMN

Earnings: HKEX Board Meeting Notices (confirmed board/results dates for major names) + Nasdaq China/HK ADRs. Rows labelled unconfirmed are Yahoo estimates only (not on HKEX BMN). Not wired: HSI quarterly review (mid-Feb/May/Aug/Nov TBC); PBoC/HKMA meeting dates; full IPO pipeline. AAStocks calendar page exists but has no stable free API — skipped.

Overnight China ADRs

ADR	Close $	1d	HK-implied HKD	vs HK close	As of
BABA	104.41	-3.9%	102.29	-1.4%	2026-10-21
JD	25.79	-3.6%	101.07	-1.6%	2026-10-21
BIDU	78.82	-2.1%	77.22	-0.6%	2026-10-21
NTES	122.98	-1.7%	192.78	-0.9%	2026-10-21
TCOM	39.31	-2.5%	308.11	-1.5%	2026-10-21
BILI	13.60	-2.3%	106.60	-0.9%	2026-10-21
NIO	3.36	-2.0%	26.34	+0.3%	2026-10-21
LI	11.50	-3.6%	45.07	-1.6%	2026-10-21
XPEV	9.36	-5.5%	36.68	-0.8%	2026-10-21
PDD	78.72	-3.6%	—	—	2026-10-21
KWEB	23.74	-2.5%	—	—	2026-10-21
FXI	32.94	-1.7%	—	—	2026-10-21

Implied = ADR × USDHKD ÷ ADR ratio (BABA 8, JD 2, BIDU 8, NTES 5, TCOM/BILI/NIO 1, LI/XPEV 2 — ratios hard-coded, verify). HK close is prior HK session. Index vs MAs card removed — levels/slopes live on Exit-door HSI/HSTECH rows.

Trader consensus

US stocks: bearish 7 · neutral 3 · bullish 1 · no US view 6 · bearish share 64% → Overall: bearish

HK stocks: bearish 6 · neutral 1 · no HK view 10 · bearish share 86% → RED → Overall: bearish

very bearishbearishneutralbullishvery bullishno view

US stances filled: 11/17 (quorum ≥4) · weighted avg -0.50 on −2..+2 · HK filled: 7/17 · weighted avg -0.85 · stale (>10d) weighted 50%: 3 · Headline band (exit-door)

Other markets: Gold: bearish (n=1, avg -1.00) · Crypto: neutral (n=1, avg +0.00)

GREEN LIGHT: not triggered CROWDED: not triggered

Trader	US stocks	HK stocks	Gold	Crypto	As of	Executive summary
J Law	bearish	—	—	—	2026-10-20	Exited TQQQ, trimmed SOXL, raised cash broad risk-off in AI hardware/semis says the best trading window of the year is behind us Oct 20 X: sarcastic on CRWV 'found a way to make the chart look bullish' — still sceptical, no re-risk 已清 TQQQ、減 SOXL、提高現金 AI 硬件／半導體普遍減風險指「今年最佳交易窗口已過」 10/20 X：嘲諷 CRWV「整到圖好似轉強」— 仍然審慎，未重新加倉 J Law : https://x.com/JLawStock/status/2112468671687999978 · J Law : https://x.com/JLawStock/status/2110774058803757530 · J Law : https://x.com/JLawStock/status/2111855804806791456
★ Ah Ju 阿豬	bearish	—	—	neutral	2026-10-19	AI credit domino risk (cloud/compute bonds, circular financing) US yields at 20-year highs as a crash precursor selling SPCX into strength ahead of Nov lockup BTC/ETH at key levels (neutral) 警示 AI 信貸骨牌風險（雲／算力債、循環融資）美債孳息逼近20年高位視作股災前兆 SPCX 趁強沽貨、留意11月鎖定期 BTC／ETH 處關鍵位（中性） Ah Ju : https://youtu.be/dHj-vxDCw3g · Ah Ju : https://youtu.be/pfmf4Ny1g2M · Ah Ju : https://x.com/trading_for_bj/status/2107217841040584908
Ringo 短炒波士	—	neutral	—	—	2026-10-20	HSI range: 24,000 support / 25,000 resistance took profit ahead of CPI would buy near 24,000 watching US dips to buy HSI broke 24,000 on Oct 20 恒指區間：24,000 支持／25,000 阻力 CPI 前已獲利近 24,000 會考慮做多美股睇回調買入 10/20 恒指已破 24,000 Ringo : https://youtu.be/_N0HuwSa4WA · Ringo : https://youtu.be/qzOxa6fHrFY
小金人 Oscar (金人金語)	bearish	bearish	—	—	2026-10-04 needs update	Global sovereign yield surge is the 3–6 month main theme most assets look overpriced AI still OK HK/banks weak 全球主權債孳息急升是未來3–6個月主軸多數資產偏貴 AI 仍可港股／銀行偏弱 Oscar : https://youtu.be/NsQSbbX596s
★ Sky Sir 張士佳 (Sky財經天地)	neutral	bearish	—	—	2026-10-22	US neutral: trimmed at NQ highs, ~9% index position left, did not call a full exit sees a CDS-driven shakeout before further upside, waiting for a buy-back signal HK cautious/short bias: Oct 22 short note reiterates path from 26k→24k toward 22,xxx (~1k+ more downside) holding stocks only vs actively shorting are two different market regimes 美股中性：納指高位已減倉，指數倉約剩9%，未喊全面離場預期 CDS 驅動震倉後再上，等回補訊號港股偏淡／偏空：10/22 空倉觀點重申由26k→24k 再向22,xxx（約再跌1,000點以上）「淨係揸股蝕」同「主動出擊」係兩個級嘅市 Sky Sir : https://youtu.be/LeLtQ40R46g · Sky Sir : https://youtu.be/wzD-W5oUvSs · Sky Sir : https://youtu.be/GfOH124syKE · Sky Sir : https://youtu.be/panEi3yLJqA
Uncle Stock Notes 大叔美股筆記	bullish	—	—	—	2026-10-22	Oct 21 notes: 'US stocks look safe today' AI buildout intact (SpaceX power buys GEV/ETN ABF/packaging into 2027 HBM/memory tight through 2027Q1). Bought some ARM on the dip (edge AI with QCOM) likes ASX under 35 / wait on AMKR SPCX earnings solid but wait for a dip Nvidia capacity prepay = don't chase headlines—check valuation Still prefers MRVL/AVGO/LITE/NBIS themes 10/21 筆記：「今天美股算安全」 AI 建設邏輯未破（SpaceX 電力相關買 GEV／ETN ABF／封裝看到2027 HBM／內存緊至2027Q1）回調買咗啲 ARM（邊緣 AI 聯 QCOM）鍾意 ASX <35、AMKR 再等 SPCX 業績穩但等低位 Nvidia 預付產能＝唔好追消息—要睇估值 Uncle Stock : https://unclestocknotes.substack.com/p/261021-substack · Uncle Stock : https://unclestocknotes.substack.com
★ 陳刀仔 DataLouder 數說財經	bearish	—	—	—	2026-10-22	No usable transcript for the Oct 22 video (captions/auto-subs disabled — stance NOT re-scored from the title asking if BTC/US stocks are a last boarding chance) Holding US bearish from the Oct 19 risk-signal clip: US risk signal triggered ~Oct 13 and again by Oct 19 fund-flow backdrop weak for ~1 month with no improvement Medium-term constructive note from an earlier midterm backtest (pre-election low then ~+15% median over 12m) unchanged pending a transcript 10/22 影片無可用字幕（字幕／自動字幕關閉 — 未按標題「比特幣／美股可能是最後上車時間」重評立場）維持 10/19 風險訊號片段嘅美股偏淡：美股風險訊號約10/13 觸發、10/19 再確認資金流弱約一個月未改善早前中期回測嘅中期偏建設性看法（大選前低位後12個月中位約+15%）暫不變，等有逐字稿再更新陳刀仔 : https://youtu.be/zNHCc1YYa2k · 陳刀仔 : https://youtu.be/MCPxlMml9m8 · 陳刀仔 : https://youtu.be/6rD4Xs9piz8
★ Eric 投機先要溫功課	neutral	bearish	bearish	—	2026-10-22	Oct 22 LIVE (~90m): HK bearish — says the year's high is already in since Sep 28 after breaking 22,500, three downside methods converge near 19,767 (90% implied vol), 19,612 (forward PE ~11x), and ~20,500 (1:1 symmetry) Forward PE mid ~12–13 'not very attractive' index level ≠ cheap. Exit rule: cut when wrong, don't hedge with options to drag on the way down don't catch the knife before 1:1 US: no clear index call (only discussed crash risk / AI upstream links) → keep prior neutral Gold: head-and-shoulders broke neckline, bearish to at least ~3,500 3,950 not treated as strong support. Crypto not discussed 10/22 LIVE（約90分鐘）：港股偏淡 —「全年高位已見」自9/28 穿22,500後三路計低位匯聚約19,767（引申波幅90%）、19,612（Forward PE~11x）、約20,500（1:1對稱） Forward PE 中位約12–13「並非十分吸引」指數點數唔等於平離場：做錯即止損、唔好期權對沖拖倉下跌途中1:1未到唔撈美股：無清晰指數方向（只談股災風險／AI上游聯動）→維持先前中性黄金：頭肩頂破頸線，睇淡至至少約3,500 Eric : https://youtu.be/1nWlHly2SFk · Eric : https://youtu.be/rl5iJSFAUnQ · Eric : https://youtu.be/92QyXqQPtZI
孫子大戶	bearish	bearish	—	—	2026-10-21	Recent lives/Threads: AI credit risk (CoreWeave CDS / ORCL / NBIS financing chain) flagged as a bigger danger than price HSI 24,400 / 23,600 key levels southbound flow flipped after ~7 weeks of inflow capital-preservation framing (protect principal first HK AI hardware bleeding not stopped). Watching US tech/NQ — not chasing 近期直播／Threads：AI 信貸風險（CoreWeave CDS／ORCL／NBIS 融資鏈）警示大過股價本身恒指 24,400／23,600 關鍵北水約7周流入後掉頭先守本金框架（今次先守本金／港股 AI 硬件未止血）美股科技／納指觀望，唔追孫子大戶 : https://www.threads.com/@theartoftrade88 · 孫子大戶 : https://www.youtube.com/@theartoftrade88 · 孫子大戶 : https://q.futunn.com/hk/profile/32897675
艾文（我要炒期貨）	bearish	bearish	—	—	2026-10-20	MTTV/MoneyTab futures show Oct 20: HSI break of 24,000 called extremely critical Nasdaq finally pulling back after highs episode framed around scenarios and trading psychology (the 'should have' trap), not a dip-buy call MTTV／MoneyTab「我要炒期貨」10/20：恒指破24,000 稱為極關鍵納指高位後終於回調節目圍繞情境同交易心理（「應該」陷阱），並非回調買入號召艾文 : https://www.money-tab.com/channel/short-fly-futures-live/vMTAwNjY%3D · 艾文 : https://www.money-tab.com/channel/short-fly-futures-live · 艾文 : https://www.aimenzone.com/
Mila Yuen	bearish	—	—	—	2026-10-05 needs update	YT Oct 4–5: US 10-year through ~5.6% and long-bond debasement framing stresses cash and patience, avoid chasing Older April 'stability' bull narrative superseded by October yield/debt focus for stance YT 10/4–10/5：美債10年期穿越約5.6%，長債「貨幣稀釋」框架強調現金同耐心、唔好追較早4月「維穩」偏多敘事已被10月孳息／債務焦點取代 Mila Yuen : https://www.youtube.com/@MilaYuen · Mila Yuen : https://milayuen.com/ · Mila Yuen : https://kolscanner.com/youtube-channel/milayuen
Bubble Dragon	—	bearish	—	—	2026-10-22	Oct 22 live (no captions yet). Prior Oct 21: cut ~HK$10M of ~14M, can't find buys AI concerns unresolved HK very hard only short-term trades keeps dividend stocks. Stance held bearish 10/22 直播（暫未有字幕）先前10/21：約1,400萬倉切走約1,000萬，搵唔到買點 AI 疑慮未解港股好難做只做短線留住息股立場維持偏淡 Bubble Dragon : https://youtu.be/evilNk1pK3A · Bubble Dragon : https://youtu.be/GUG6oC1TXfM · Bubble Dragon : https://youtu.be/M2trLLNzzPc
James & Dennis (Aireturn)	neutral	—	—	—	2026-10-21	James (Oct 21, pre-market show): not a Oct-2007 style top/bear start — AI underlying demand (GPU/HBM/compute) still rising, no A1 'debt bomb' coverage, SOFR−IORB still negative, credit spreads not spiking expects a choppy grind higher with limited rebound momentum (few shorts) real-yield-driven revaluation TSLA/SpaceX merger = strong catalyst Watch CoreWeave/Oracle bond yields (9%→15–16%) and HY spreads 經濟前 James（10/21）：唔係2007年10月式見頂／熊市開波 — AI 實質需求（GPU／HBM／算力）仍升，未見 A1「債彈」報道，SOFR−IORB 仍負、信貸息差未急升預期反复向上、反彈動能有限（淡倉唔多）實質息帶動重估 TSLA／SpaceX 合併＝強催化留意 CoreWeave／Oracle 債息（9%→15–16%）同高收益息差 Aireturn : https://youtu.be/9FuMd3MKaoA · Aireturn : patreon.com
莊主劉偉強 (Logic 投資山莊)	—	—	—	—	2026-10-22	Latest public pieces are stock/sector columns (e.g Alibaba AI spend vs cash flow) without a clear dated US/HK index regime call Pending next Logic / am730 market piece 最新公開內容多為個股／板塊專欄（例如阿里 AI 開支對現金流），未見明確、有日期嘅美／港指數級Regime 判斷待下一篇 Logic 投資山莊／am730 市況文章莊主 : https://www.youtube.com/@logicinvesttown · 莊主 : https://www.am730.com.hk/columnist/386220/%E5%8A%89%E5%81%89%E5%BC%B7(%E8%8E%8A%E4%B8%BB)
Alex Mok 美股策略研究（莫家強）	—	—	—	—	2026-10-22	No fresh free/public regime stance as of this as-of Tracking FB / Patreon (free titles) / IG for the next bull-bear call 截至本更新日期未有新鮮免費／公開Regime 立場繼續追蹤 FB／Patreon（免費標題）／IG，等下一次牛熊判斷 Alex Mok : patreon.com · Alex Mok : https://www.instagram.com/alexmokinvest · Alex Mok : alexmokinvest.teachable.com
Martin Luk	—	—	—	—	2026-10-22	Rarely gives explicit opinions — default neutral / no market comment SPECIAL WATCH only: if he shorts an index, flag and overweight that signal No index-short alert as of this as-of 甚少公開明確立場 — 預設中性／無市況評論只設特別留意：若對指數做空，須標註並加重該訊號截至本更新日期未見指數做空警報 —
Calvin Tsai	—	—	—	—	2026-10-05 needs update	Latest X post is non-market (health). No current crypto view 最新 X 帖與市場無關（健康）目前無加密貨幣觀點 Calvin Tsai : https://x.com/calvintsaikm/status/2107047514948108547

Core-four (US) — status: not triggered (2/4)

HK core (excl Ah Ju) — status: triggered (2/3) · ≥2/3 of ★ Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric HK-bearish → treat HK band as ≥ Yellow.

Rules

GREEN LIGHT condition: if more than half of filled US stances (weighted; stale ones count 50%) are bullish/very bullish, AND risk score ≤2, AND SPX > 50d, AND ≥50% of S&P 500 > 50d → may press harder, still within the band's risk limits (cf. Apr 2026). The followed traders agreeing feeds only this flag.

CROWDED condition: outside/public sentiment is euphoric (at least 2 of 3: CNN Fear & Greed ≥75 extreme greed, AAII bull−bear ≥+20pp, CBOE equity put/call 5d avg ≤0.50; now 0/3), AND SPX ≥5% above 50d (now +0.7%), AND breadth is fading (%>50d down >5pp in 10d or A/D line below its 50d; now no) → don't chase, tighten stops. Trader stances are NOT used.

Core-four rule (US): if ≥3/4 of ★ Ah Ju + Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric are US-bearish or very bearish (markets.US only; overall stance ignored) → treat band as ≥ Yellow.

HK core rule: Ah Ju has no HK view — if ≥2/3 of ★ Sky Sir + 陳刀仔 + Eric are HK bearish/very bearish → treat HK band as ≥ Yellow.

Overall stance: per market, weighted average of filled stances on −2..+2 (very bearish −2 … very bullish +2); a stance older than 10 days is marked needs update and gets 50% weight: ≥+1.5 very bullish, ≥+0.5 bullish, >−0.5 neutral, >−1.5 bearish, else very bearish. The US score and GREEN LIGHT use US stances only, so an HK-bearish view does not lower the US score. Blank = trader gave no view for that market.

Market Pulse

US markets

Cross-check — US

Exit-door risk score

Exit-door history

Liquidity & rates

SOFR − IORB spread, 12 months (bp)

Sentiment — Fear & Greed

Public sentiment — euphoria check

VIX / VIX3M term structure

Fed funds futures — FedWatch-style odds (derived estimate)

US breadth — S&P 500

Strong-stock index

Top 20

Sectors

Calendar

Key earnings, next 2 weeks (≥$200B cap, mega-caps, or RS top-20)

Gold / Bitcoin / Oil

Gold / Bitcoin strength

Oil strength

Capital-flow rotation

HK & China Market

Cross-check — HK

Exit-door risk score — HK

Exit-door history

HK Liquidity

HK Sentiment

HK retail (CBBC)

6-day comparison

HK Volatility

HK Breadth

HK Calendar

Overnight China ADRs

Trader consensus